September 25, 2024
This will be a shorter update today, the day job is getting in the way...I'll start off by telling those along the coast that if you don't already follow Meteorologist Ross Whitley on Facebook, he is the best local resource you will find. He will also be covering this storm more or less 24/7 and will have the most up to date info. Now for the storm. As of the 10 a.m. CDT advisory today Helene has become a hurricane. The track has shifted just slightly west, but overall the forecast is unchanged. Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane and make landfall between Panama City and Keaton Beach tomorrow evening. There have been no comments in the NHC's discussion for the last few advisories regarding track shifts but they did note that track can be off by about 60 miles at a 36 hour lead time. I was thinking (and hoping) we'd see a little bit of an eastward shift but that hasn't happened, so far I've been wrong in that regard. They also noted that upward adjustments to the intensity forecast may be needed. It is certainly possible that Helene may reach category 4 strength and while it is probably a top end scenario and not very likely, category 5 strength is technically possible.
Normal Cone
Experimental Cone Showing Inland Impacts
Below is the wind threat map from the NWS Southern Region Tropical Webpage. Bay and Walton Counties are in the orange zone, which is "Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph. This is in line with what I was saying yesterday that if the storm stays on track the most severe impacts should stay to your east. The models are very tightly clustered, but it would only require a small change in the timing of the turn from the northeast to the north for the impacts to change significantly. I'm cautiously optimistic this will not happen, but be prepared in case it does.
I'm sure you're all watching this as close as I am, but I'll probably send at least one more update tomorrow.
Please be safe and let me know if you have any questions.
Chris
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