September 6, 2024
I'm not sure if I can come up with a concise title for this update. The most recent 7-Day Outlook from the NHC is below. While the tropics look busy with 4 areas being watched (there were 5 yesterday...) I don't think any of them are major threats, probably at least, especially in the short term. To summarize, the area off of Texas, designated Invest 90L, has a 10 percent chance of developing. The area in the Bay of Campeche has a 20 percent chance of developing, but will likely combine or interact with 90L. There's an area off the East Coast (Invest 99L), no concern. Lastly, there's an area in the Atlantic with a 10 percent chance of development. Your level of concern should be about the same as those probabilities. We'll keep watching the areas in the Gulf and the one out east, but no big concerns at the moment, more below if you're interested.
Let's talk a few details. Invest 90L off the Texas coast is expected to drift to the south through the weekend and development is unlikely until early to mid next week, if at all. As it drifts south it is going to interact with a tropical wave crossing the Yucatan (yes, the same one we've been watching for a few weeks now) with the wave adding energy and moisture to 90L. By Monday or Tuesday we may see this system try to organize as it consolidates and moves back north through the end of the week. Slow development is possible, but right now it looks like a tropical depression or maybe a tropical storm impact along the Texas/Louisiana coasts will be the upper end for this system. Land interaction and wind shear from a stalled front are likely to limit development but let's watch to make sure.
The area in the Atlantic is another tropical wave that has a chance (currently low) to develop as it moves west. Models aren't too excited about it and the overall environment in the Atlantic isn't particularly favorable for tropical cyclone development right now. This is expected to remain the case until mid month or the third week of September but we should also keep an eye on it as it moves west. As it is it has a pretty good chance of going north before reaching the Gulf but that's not guaranteed.
Speaking of unfavorable conditions, the lack of activity in the tropics has been a head scratcher. Some reasons are known, but the underlying causes are not understood. Globally there are some unusual weather patterns and they are likely linked. Still, Colorado State thinks we will end up with an above average season and they expect favorable conditions to develop in the second half of September and into October. CSU also mentioned that a hyperactive season is still a possibility, but is a lower probability now. A lull like we've had followed by a big increase in activity is not unprecedented. We'll see.
It is officially fall (meteorological fall). Earth, Wind, and Fire will usher us into astronomical fall in a few weeks on the autumnal equinox, although this year it's on the 22nd and not the 21st. Northern AL and TN should see a night or two in the 50's this weekend before warming back up to near normal. Temps have been mostly cooler than normal and should remain so (especially daily high temps) through the start of the week and maybe longer from about Montgomery south thanks to some fronts stalling along the coast. It will also be pretty wet for the same area for the same reason. No cold weather on the horizon yet, but I think we're done with the excessive heat.
That's it for today.
Have a great weekend.
Chris
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