Two Areas Being Watched in the Tropics

October 14, 2024

The tropics have quieted down a little since the recent active period, we have to go back to Saturday since we last had a named storm (Leslie). Currently there are two areas being watched for development as shown below.

First, another CAG-like system may form in the Caribbean towards the end of the week. Current chances of development are 20% through 7 days and 0% through 2 days. Satellite data indicates an area of thunderstorms is starting to loosely organize in the southwest Caribbean. Models have hinted at development in this area since before Milton made landfall. The GFS model has been the most aggressive but since it can have a bias towards false development in this area there has been uncertainty whether this would occur or not. There has been some ensemble support as well from the GFS, Euro, and Canadian models so this combined with the consistent GFS runs and recent satellite presentation has caused this area to finally show up on the 7-Day Outlook. Track options are all over the board so we'll have to wait a bit for a better feel for that.

The orange area is a tropical wave that tried to develop but just didn't make it. This area will continue to the west or west-northwest and and may make another run at development as it nears the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles later this week or through the weekend. Development chances are currently at 60% through 7 days and 10% through 2 days. No promises but I think this will get pulled to the north before it threatens the US, something to keep watching though.

Here in the Southeast it looks like the weather will remain dry for most of us through the weekend with the exception that folks in Eastern Tennessee may see a few showers tomorrow. We'll also see a few cooler days Wednesday through Friday with a few nights in the 30s in TN and North AL and some upper 40s all the way to the coast. Daytime highs will be very fall-like!

That's it for today, more info in a few days as we know more about this system in the Caribbean.

Chris