November 3, 2024
The National Hurricane Center has started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. The system doesn't yet have the characteristic of a tropical depression, but given that it is expected to gain these soon and be near Jamaica when it does so, advisories have been started. The track forecast confidence is fairly high for the first few days but then lowers significantly by about midweek. This is a good time for a reminder that the forecast cone does not represent the uncertainty for any given storm, but is based on historical track error for the past 5 years so the real spread is probably a bit wider than shown. Regarding strength, the storm is expected to strengthen to hurricane strength but then weaken in the Gulf. Most likely, the main impact in the US from this system will be much needed rain and maybe some coastal effects if it retains tropical storm force winds by landfall. It may be a few days before we have a better idea of the final track. I posted a few model graphics for reference. The hurricane spaghetti models (first plot) look fairly clustered but you'll see quite a bit of spread in the ensembles (second plot) once the system gets to the middle of the Gulf.
That's it for this evening. Again, I really don't expect major impacts along the Gulf Coast but it'll be a few days before we have a better idea on the landfall location and forecast.
Chris
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