Severe Weather Threat Increased for Today and Overnight

The risk level has increased for the significant severe weather outbreak expected today and tonight across the Southeast.

Threat Areas
A Moderate Risk (red, level 4 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms is in place for parts of:

- Extreme western Alabama, extending west into parts of Mississippi and Louisiana

This is surrounded by Enhanced (orange, level 3 out of 5) and Slight (yellow, level 2 out of 5) risk areas extending across much of the Southeast and Texas.

- An Enhanced risk area extends into central Alabama, including Mobile and the western suburbs of Montgomery and Birmingham

- The remainder of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are in a Slight risk area

Primary Hazards

Multiple severe weather threats are expected:

- Tornadoes, some potentially strong, with EF2+ damage possible in western and central Alabama

- Severe wind gusts, especially in the Moderate and Enhanced risk areas

- Large hail (lower chance)

The greatest tornado potential will occur with any discrete (isolated) supercells, particularly near the warm front, which will lift north throughout the day. Later, as storms organize into linear segments, embedded bow echoes may produce both tornadoes and widespread damaging winds.

Timing and Evolution

The severe weather threat will progress in phases:

- This afternoon and evening: Scattered storms ahead of the squall line

- Tonight: A squall line, timing uncertain, will move through sometime from this evening to the morning

Mobile and Pensacola Areas

Birmingham and Montgomery

Florida Panhandle

As stated, the greatest tornado threat will occur ahead of the main line of storms. With the squall line the main threat will be damaging winds but there may be a few tornadoes as well.

The weather will rapidly evolve today. Have a plan on how to seek shelter if needed and make sure you have more than one way to receive warnings if they occur in your area. The risk for tomorrow is mostly unchanged for the Panhandle.

Stay safe.

Chris