Winter Weather Looking More Likely for Coastal Areas Early Next Week

January 17, 2025

An unusual winter weather pattern is expected to affect the region next week. While temperatures are anticipated to be very cold, though maybe not record-breaking, the main focus is on the potential for winter weather along the coast. The possibility has existed for a while, but we're close enough now to say that frozen precipitation is looking likely with maybe even some accumulation.

Key Uncertainties

Several important questions remain unanswered:

1. Type of precipitation (see below)
2. Amount of accumulation (none to maybe 2-4 inches)
3. Timing of the event (starting late Monday or early Tuesday?, lasting until Wednesday?)

These details are expected to become clearer by Sunday or Monday.

Current Outlook

The forecast currently suggests a range of possibilities, from no precipitation (unlikely) to several inches of snow (also unlikely), with various scenarios in between.

Model Comparisons

Two models for Tuesday at 6 p.m. show similar but slightly different scenarios (GFS top, Euro bottom):

1. GFS Model: Predicts freezing rain/sleet slightly north of the Euro model's prediction, indicating a different storm track. No changeover to rain is forecasted.
2. Euro Model: Shows a changeover to rain after initial snow/sleet/ice, which is not present in the GFS model.

These differences reflect subtle variations in the storm track, cold air positioning, and moisture availability.

Snow Probabilities

For those hoping for snow, the Euro model (bottom) is slightly more optimistic:

• Probability of at least 1 inch of snow is shown
• Chances decrease rapidly for accumulations beyond 1 inch
• Significant accumulations are not expected at this time
• A 2-4 inch range (10-20% chance) is possible if the snow band stays to the south

It's important to note that in southern regions, the exact outcome of winter storms can be difficult to predict until the weather event actually occurs. This aims to provide an overview of possibilities rather than a definitive prediction.

That's it for today. Let's watch how the forecast evolves. Have a good weekend and I'll send another update on Sunday.

Chris