Update - Severe Weather Risk Continues to Expand Eastward

Update - February 15, 2025

I apologize for the second update today. The severe weather risk has expanded eastward again for tonight into early Sunday morning, with Enhanced and Slight risk zones now covering the central Florida Panhandle. Key updates include:

• The main reason for this expansion is due to an increase in the wind damage risk, thankfully there is no change to the tornado risk.

• There is also a significantly increased wind damage threat in southwest Alabama, where the Storm Prediction Center added a 45% chance of damaging winds north of Mobile, but this shouldn't affect any of us.

Mobile-Pensacola Area Update - Day 1 (through 6 a.m. Sunday)

Destin-Panama City Update - Day 1 (through 6 a.m. Sunday)

For Sunday (Day 2) after 6 a.m., a Slight risk of severe weather will affect areas from Panama City eastward into the Florida Big Bend region.

I don't have any indications that there will be any more significant changes, but stay tuned to local media as the weather nears your area for the latest information.

Chris

The Enhanced Risk Area for Tonight has Expanded to the South and East

February 15, 2025

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk for parts of Alabama and Florida for this evening and overnight into early Sunday morning:

RISK AREA EXPANSIONS

• Enhanced Risk Area now includes:

• Most of Mobile (AL) and Pensacola (FL) areas

• Areas just to the west of Montgomery and Birmingham (AL)

• 10% Tornado Risk now covers:

• Northern Mobile and Pensacola

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Montgomery-Birmingham

SEVERE THREATS

• Tornado Potential:

• EF2+ (strong) tornadoes possible in 10% risk area

• Damaging Winds:

  • 30% probability within the Enhanced Risk area

STORM CHARACTERISTICS

• Primary threat: Fast-moving squall line with embedded storms tonight/overnight

• Secondary concern: Isolated discrete storms ahead of main line

• No changes to previously forecasted timing or for other areas

Remain alert for rapidly changing conditions and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings, especially considering these storms will be arriving overnight.

Stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Saturday Into Sunday - Bitter Cold Coming the End of Next Week

February 14, 2025 (Happy Valentines Day!):

Severe Weather Threat (Saturday-Sunday)

• A severe squall line associated with a cold front will move through the Southeast on Saturday evening.

• If isolated storms can form in the warm sector during the afternoon or early evening ahead of the squall line these will also pose a tornado and damaging wind risk. 

• Enhanced risk of severe weather for parts of northern and central Alabama, with the main area extending back through Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas.

• In the enhanced risk area:

  • 5% chance of tornadoes

  • 30% chance of damaging winds

  • 5% chance of hail

• Slight risk of severe weather for the rest of Alabama, Florida Panhandle to Panama City Beach, and most of central Tennessee, with lower probabilities of severe weather.

• In the slight risk area:

  • 2-5% chance of tornadoes, decreasing eastward

  • 15% chance of damaging winds

  • 5% chance of hail in central Tennessee

• Marginal risk extends further into the Florida Panhandle.

• On Sunday, a marginal risk continues for the central and eastern Florida Panhandle as the system exits the area.

• Localized details are below.

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Montgomery-Birmingham

Huntsville

Eastern Tennessee

Destin-Panama City Area

Temperature Changes

• Cooler temperatures will follow the cold front on Monday morning.

• Brief warm-up expected Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by bitter cold Friday morning, slowly warming through the weekend into the following week.

• Monday morning temperatures:

  • Upper 30s near the coast

  • Around freezing in central Alabama

  • Low to mid 20s in northern Alabama and Tennessee

• Friday morning will be much colder:

  • Mid to low 20s near the coast

  • Low 20s to teens in central Alabama

  • Teens to single digits in northern Alabama and Tennessee

Frozen Precip Still Uncertain

• There is still the possibility of frozen precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday for northern Alabama and Tennessee, though details are still uncertain.

That's it for today. The severe weather forecast for Wednesday was pretty good as you can see below.

Stay safe and have a good weekend.

Chris