February 14, 2025 (Happy Valentines Day!):
Severe Weather Threat (Saturday-Sunday)
A severe squall line associated with a cold front will move through the Southeast on Saturday evening.
If isolated storms can form in the warm sector during the afternoon or early evening ahead of the squall line these will also pose a tornado and damaging wind risk.
Enhanced risk of severe weather for parts of northern and central Alabama, with the main area extending back through Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
In the enhanced risk area:
5% chance of tornadoes
30% chance of damaging winds
5% chance of hail
Slight risk of severe weather for the rest of Alabama, Florida Panhandle to Panama City Beach, and most of central Tennessee, with lower probabilities of severe weather.
In the slight risk area:
2-5% chance of tornadoes, decreasing eastward
15% chance of damaging winds
5% chance of hail in central Tennessee
Marginal risk extends further into the Florida Panhandle.
On Sunday, a marginal risk continues for the central and eastern Florida Panhandle as the system exits the area.
Localized details are below.
Temperature Changes
Cooler temperatures will follow the cold front on Monday morning.
Brief warm-up expected Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by bitter cold Friday morning, slowly warming through the weekend into the following week.
Monday morning temperatures:
Upper 30s near the coast
Around freezing in central Alabama
Low to mid 20s in northern Alabama and Tennessee
Friday morning will be much colder:
Mid to low 20s near the coast
Low 20s to teens in central Alabama
Teens to single digits in northern Alabama and Tennessee
Frozen Precip Still Uncertain
There is still the possibility of frozen precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday for northern Alabama and Tennessee, though details are still uncertain.
That's it for today. The severe weather forecast for Wednesday was pretty good as you can see below.
Stay safe and have a good weekend.
Chris
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