March 14, 2025
This is as bad as it gets...
Critical Saturday Severe Weather Outlook
A HIGH RISK (Level 5/5) - the most severe category - targets central/west-southwest Alabama (including Birmingham). The threats are:
30% chance of tornadoes, with multiple strong/long-track EF2+ tornadoes expected
Baseball-sized hail (>2" diameter)
Destructive winds over 70 mph
MODERATE RISK (Level 4/5): Rest of Alabama and Florida Panhandle (to Panama City)
15% tornado chance (strong EF2+/long-track possible)
Same catastrophic hail/wind potential as High Risk area
ENHANCED RISK (Level 3/5): Middle/eastern Tennessee and FL Panhandle to Tallahassee
10% tornado chance (EF2+ possible)
Large hail and 60+ mph winds
Timing: Multiple storm rounds possible from Saturday noon through Sunday 3 AM, peaking between 2-10 PM in central AL.
Montgomery-Birmingham Area Saturday
Huntsville Saturday (graphic is outdated, risks are the same for this area)
Eastern Tennessee (graphic is outdated, risks are the same for this area)
Mobile-Pensacola Saturday
Destin-Panama City Saturday (graphic is outdated, risks are the same for this area)
Immediate Overnight Threat (Tonight-Saturday AM)
ENHANCED RISK area covers northern/western AL, southern MS, and middle TN:
10% EF2+ tornado chance
60 mph winds
Golf ball-sized hail
SLIGHT RISK extends to Birmingham/Chattanooga/Mobile areas:
5% tornado chance
55+ mph winds
Montgomery-Birmingham Area Tonight
Mobile-Pensacola Tonight
Essential Actions
Consider seek more substantial shelter ahead of time
Enable emergency alerts on multiple devices
Keep helmets and shoes in your safe room, mattresses are a good idea also
Prepare for nighttime tornadoes - charge devices and keep flashlights handy
This remains an exceptionally dangerous setup resembling historic Alabama outbreaks. Stay weather-aware through Sunday morning.
Again, please be safe.
Chris
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