Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Evening Through Wednesday Morning

March 3, 2025

After a period of mostly quiet weather, the Southeast faces an active storm pattern starting Tuesday evening. A cold front will bring severe weather risks, with varying threat levels across regions:

Enhanced Risk Area (SW Alabama/western FL Panhandle):

• 10% chance of EF2+ tornadoes

• 30% chance of damaging winds

• 5% chance of hail

Slight Risk Area (Most of Alabama/FL Panhandle west of Panama City):

• 15% chance of damaging winds

• 5% tornado risk south of Birmingham

Marginal Risk Area (NE Alabama/central & western Tennessee):

• 5% chance of damaging winds

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Montgomery-Birmingham

Destin-Panama City

Timing shows storms progressing west-to-east from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday, with lingering light showers in Tennessee until late Wednesday. Strong winds not related to the storms will be present over the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is some disagreement about future weather systems:

• Weather Prediction Center: Predicts a fast-moving coastal system Saturday morning, clearing by Sunday/Monday.

• Models conflict:

  • GFS: Stronger low pressure crosses northern Alabama late Saturday

  • ECMWF: Fast-moving low crosses Kentucky early Saturday, followed by lingering coastal system into Sunday

  • A system that is more coastal in nature seems to be the favored track

• A third system is possible late Wednesday/Thursday

• Cooler temperatures will follow each system’s passage but rebound quickly to near-normal levels afterward.

Here's a look at how the last severe weather forecast performed. Overall it looks pretty good although the eastern side of the outlook area busted boomed (overperformed) a bit.

Stay safe and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts.

Chris