May 28, 2025
Hurricane season kicks off this Sunday (June 1st), and while we're not looking at the hyperactive madness that was forecast last year (and then busted...), there's still plenty to keep an eye on.
Early June Development
The big story for early June is potential tropical development in the Caribbean around the second week of the month. Computer models are showing low to moderate signals for something spinning up in the western or northwest Caribbean, with a possible track into the Gulf. This is pretty typical for this time of year - the Gulf and Caribbean are already plenty warm, we just need wind shear to calm down and a seed system to work with.
The potential culprit could be a Central American Gyre (CAG) - basically a large circulation that can spin off smaller troublemakers under the right conditions. We should have a clearer picture by next week.
Seasonal Outlook
The overall season is shaping up to be average to above average, which is actually good news compared to last year's initially hyperactive forecast. Sea surface temperatures, while a little cooler than last year, are still above the 30 year average and wind shear is expected to be low due to neutral El Nino conditions. Here's what the experts are saying:
Colorado State University (April forecast):
- 17 named storms (average is 14.4)
- 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2)
- 4 major hurricanes (average is 3.2)
NOAA (May forecast):
- 60% chance of above average season
- 13-19 named storms
- 6-10 hurricanes
- 3-5 major hurricanes
Personal Take
Here's my first attempt at a seasonal forecast (take it with a grain of salt): I'm thinking we'll see average activity overall in the Atlantic basin but maybe below average activity for the Gulf of Mexico. For the Gulf specifically, there's a good chance for a storm early in June, probably favoring the central and eastern Gulf. I'm expecting maybe 3-5 Gulf storms total for the season, another 1-2 in July or August with activity looking quieter than usual in September when things normally ramp up but with 1-2 more in October and November.
The most action will likely be from storms forming out in the east Atlantic in September, with many recurving harmlessly into the open ocean. Coastal North Carolina might see some action early in July and August but especially in September, while Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas could face higher than normal risk in September and October and maybe into November.
Bottom Line
Regardless of what the forecasts say, now's the time to start putting that hurricane kit together and thinking through evacuation plans. Every season deserves the same level of preparation, whether it ends up quiet or chaotic.
I'll keep you up to date as necessary throughout the season.
Chris
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