Deep South Weather: June 2025

Friday, June 6, 2025

Severe Storms Continue Sunday & Monday for AL, FL Panhandle, TN – Plus an Update on the Tropics

June 6, 2025

🌩️ Unsettled Pattern Continues — Severe Weather Possible Sunday and Monday

Not much has changed to the current forecast for today (Friday) or Saturday, although a Marginal risk area has been added for coastal areas tomorrow (. Both days still carry a Slight to Marginal Risk for severe storms, mainly for damaging winds in the afternoon and evening.

Looking ahead, the active pattern continues into Sunday and Monday, with scattered to organized severe storms likely across parts of the Southeast.

SUNDAY – June 8, 2025

🟢🟡 Risk Level

Marginal Risk (Level 1) for most of Alabama, central and eastern Tennessee, and the western Florida Panhandle.
Higher-end Marginal or localized Slight Risk (Level 2) possible just to the west.

⏰ Timing

Afternoon into evening, with scattered storms developing during peak heating and possibly lingering into the evening.

⚠️ Main Threats

Damaging winds (main hazard)
Isolated hail
Brief tornadoes can’t be ruled out, especially with any stronger, more isolated cells.

MONDAY – June 9, 2025

🟢🟡 Risk Level (Likely)

A broad 15% risk area (SPC Day 4 Outlook), equivalent to a Slight Risk, including much of Alabama, central/eastern Tennessee, and the western Florida Panhandle. An expanded Marginal Risk surrounding this will likely be added in the coming days.

⏰ Timing

Afternoon through evening, with increasing potential for storms to organize into a squall line, enhancing the damaging wind threat.

⚠️ Main Threats

Damaging winds, potentially more widespread if line segments form
A few isolated tornadoes
Hail, especially early in storm evolution or in any discrete cells

🌀 Tropical Weather Update

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days.

There is a very weak signal for development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week, but that appears to be related to a system expected to form in the Eastern Pacific, not the Atlantic basin.

Looking farther ahead, conditions will gradually become more favorable for development in the Gulf and Caribbean as we head into the middle and end of June, but right now there are no concerns and nothing on the immediate horizon.

The GFS model continues to generate storms in the Caribbean nearly every run, but this is a known seasonal bias and is being widely dismissed by forecasters at this point.

That's it for today. Stay safe and check local media outlets for updates for your area.

Chris

Thursday, June 5, 2025

More Severe Weather Possible for Central to Northern AL and TN

June 5, 2025

🌩️ Active Weather Pattern Returning — Severe Storm Chances Through Next Week

A renewed period of unsettled weather is beginning Friday and is likely to continue through at least mid to late next week, bringing multiple rounds of thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather across Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee.

FRIDAY – June 6, 2025

🟡 Risk Level

Slight Risk (Level 2) across northern Alabama and central Tennessee.
Marginal Risk (Level 1) in central and southern Alabama, and eastern Tennessee.

⏰ Timing

North Alabama / Southern Middle Tennessee:

Florence: 2 PM – 7 PM

Huntsville: 3 PM – 8 PM

Fort Payne: 4 PM – 9 PM

Central Alabama (Birmingham area):

3 PM – 8 PM CDT

Eastern Tennessee (e.g., Knoxville, Chattanooga):

3 PM – 9 PM ET (2 PM – 8 PM CDT)

⚠️ Main Threats

Damaging winds up to 60 mph (primary hazard).
Hail: Possible, up to golf ball size (1.75") – low confidence.
Tornadoes: Very low probability.

SATURDAY – June 7, 2025

🟡 Risk Level

Slight Risk (Level 2) for most of Alabama and central/eastern Tennessee.
Marginal Risk (Level 1) in far southeastern Alabama.

⏰ Timing

Storms are expected to develop in the late afternoon and persist into the overnight hours.
Greatest threat: 3 PM – 9 PM ET (2 PM – 8 PM CDT).

Huntsville Area

Eastern Tennessee

Montgomery-Birmingham Area

⚠️ Main Threats

Damaging winds

Large hail

Flash flooding, especially in areas with training storms

Associated with a slow-moving cold front

🔭 Looking Ahead: Sunday & Monday – June 8–9, 2025

Severe weather appears possible both Sunday and Monday, especially across central and southern Alabama and parts of Tennessee.

Conditions will depend on frontal placement, instability, and upper-level support, but the environment may remain supportive of:

Scattered severe thunderstorms

Damaging wind potential

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding

⏳ Details are still evolving, especially for the second half of the week, but the pattern suggests an extended period of thunderstorm activity.

✅ What You Should Do

Stay alert for watches and warnings.
Check for updates daily, as forecast timing and threats may shift.
Review your severe weather safety plan, especially if traveling or outdoors.

I didn’t want to clutter this post with the 9 severe weather verification maps from the last several weeks, so I’ve shared those separately here if you're interested.

That’s it for today — I’ll keep you updated if the forecast changes or if additional severe weather is added.

— Chris

May 16-30 2025 Severe Weather Verification

June 5, 2025

No discussion this post, just showing severe weather forecast verification maps for applicable days between May 16th and 30th. It's been a busy spring...

May 16