Deep South Weather: June 2025

Monday, June 30, 2025

Tropics Update and Holiday Weekend Forecast

June 30th, 2025

🌦️ Tropical & Regional Weather Outlook (Next 7 Days)

🌀 Named Storms Recap
- Tropical Storm Andrea formed in the central Atlantic about a week ago; no U.S. impacts.
- Tropical Storm Barry dissipating over Mexico; also posed no threat to the U.S.
🔭 7-Day Tropical Outlook

20 % chance of development in the Gulf or off the East Coast over the next week.
A piece of cold-front energy could linger and slowly develop into a tropical system, with model tracks ranging from a slow westward drift in the Gulf to stalling over Florida or meandering eastward.
No strong intensification signal currently indicated—land interaction, shear, and dry air should may any development. Current uncertainty is high so we need to keep watching.

🌧️ Rain Focus

Heaviest rain currently progged to remain offshore of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast; a slight northward shift could bring heavier bands ashore.
Unsettled conditions continue through Wednesday morning.
Drier weather returns Thursday for most, except the immediate coast.

🌴 Holiday Weekend Preview
- Generally pleasant inland with limited rain chances.
- Beach areas see daily shower or thunderstorm potential.
🌡️ Temperature & Humidity
- Cooler-than-normal temps prevail while rain persists; muggy conditions overall.
- Post-front midweek: humidity drops, skies clear, allowing temps to climb to around or just above seasonal norms.
🗓️ Next Update

Another tropical briefing later this week as models and observations evolve.

Have a great week.

Chris

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Strong Storms Possible the Next Three Days

June 25, 2025

I apologize for the misspelling in the title in the last update re: quite vs quiet...

🌩️ Three-Day Severe Weather Outlook — Alabama, Florida, Tennessee

Highest risk today with damaging wind and hail possible. Lower but continued storm chances Thursday and Friday, with potential for risk upgrades.

⛈ Today - Wednesday, June 25, 2025 (Highest Risk Day)

Alabama:

⚠️ Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for Central, Southeast, and Southwest Alabama
🕑 Timing:

Central Alabama: 2 PM - 10 PM
Southwest & Southeast Alabama: Afternoon through late tonight

Florida:

⚠️ Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region
🕑 Timing: Afternoon through late tonight

Tennessee:

☁️ Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for Central and Eastern Tennessee
🕑 Timing: Afternoon through evening

Expected Hazards:

🌬 Damaging Winds — Gusts up to 60 mph possible
⚡ Prolific Lightning
🧊 Small to Large Hail — Up to 2 inches (Quarter to Cue Ball size possible, especially in SW Alabama)
🌪 Tornado risk is low — No significant tornado probabilities highlighted

⛈ Tomorrow - Thursday, June 26, 2025

Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Tennessee:

☁️ Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) currently outlined for all areas
⚠️ Slight Risk upgrade possible — Forecast trends will be monitored
🕑 Timing:
- Morning: Lingering storms from overnight
- Afternoon & Evening: Additional storm development likely

Expected Hazards:

🌬 Damaging Wind Gusts
⚡ Frequent Lightning
🧊 Small Hail possible
🌪 Tornado risk remains low — Less than 2% outlined

⛈ Friday - June 27, 2025

Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Tennessee:

☁️ Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for isolated strong storms
🕑 Timing: Primarily afternoon and evening

Expected Hazards:

🌬 Isolated Damaging Winds
⚡ Frequent Lightning
🧊 Small Hail possible

✅ Preparedness Reminders:

📲 Have multiple ways to receive alerts
🏠 Know your sturdy shelter location
🔄 Check for updated forecasts, especially regarding potential risk upgrades for Thursday

Stay safe and have a good rest of the week.

Chris

Monday, June 23, 2025

Tropics Look to Remain Mostly Quiet Through the End of June

June 23, 2025

🌊 Eastern Pacific Active

Sixth named storm in development
Storm activity remains high (not too unusual)

🌪️ Atlantic Quiet… For Now

First area of interest east of Bermuda
Likely to remain a weak system
Atlantic has been unusually-ish inactive

🌀 Watching the Gulf (Low Chance)

Small chance for tropical development late week into weekend
Current expectation: unlikely anything significant develops

☀️ Southeast U.S. Weather

Early Week: Hot and slightly drier 🔥
End of Week/Weekend: Wetter and slightly cooler pattern returns 🌧️

⚡ Quick Severe Weather Note

Not going to fully debrief the June 6-10 & 16-20 severe weather events
Numerous damage reports from strong winds
Definitely an interesting early summer pattern so far!

Stay safe and have a great week.

Chris

Friday, June 6, 2025

Severe Storms Continue Sunday & Monday for AL, FL Panhandle, TN – Plus an Update on the Tropics

June 6, 2025

🌩️ Unsettled Pattern Continues — Severe Weather Possible Sunday and Monday

Not much has changed to the current forecast for today (Friday) or Saturday, although a Marginal risk area has been added for coastal areas tomorrow (. Both days still carry a Slight to Marginal Risk for severe storms, mainly for damaging winds in the afternoon and evening.

Looking ahead, the active pattern continues into Sunday and Monday, with scattered to organized severe storms likely across parts of the Southeast.

SUNDAY – June 8, 2025

🟢🟡 Risk Level

Marginal Risk (Level 1) for most of Alabama, central and eastern Tennessee, and the western Florida Panhandle.
Higher-end Marginal or localized Slight Risk (Level 2) possible just to the west.

⏰ Timing

Afternoon into evening, with scattered storms developing during peak heating and possibly lingering into the evening.

⚠️ Main Threats

Damaging winds (main hazard)
Isolated hail
Brief tornadoes can’t be ruled out, especially with any stronger, more isolated cells.

MONDAY – June 9, 2025

🟢🟡 Risk Level (Likely)

A broad 15% risk area (SPC Day 4 Outlook), equivalent to a Slight Risk, including much of Alabama, central/eastern Tennessee, and the western Florida Panhandle. An expanded Marginal Risk surrounding this will likely be added in the coming days.

⏰ Timing

Afternoon through evening, with increasing potential for storms to organize into a squall line, enhancing the damaging wind threat.

⚠️ Main Threats

Damaging winds, potentially more widespread if line segments form
A few isolated tornadoes
Hail, especially early in storm evolution or in any discrete cells

🌀 Tropical Weather Update

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days.

There is a very weak signal for development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week, but that appears to be related to a system expected to form in the Eastern Pacific, not the Atlantic basin.

Looking farther ahead, conditions will gradually become more favorable for development in the Gulf and Caribbean as we head into the middle and end of June, but right now there are no concerns and nothing on the immediate horizon.

The GFS model continues to generate storms in the Caribbean nearly every run, but this is a known seasonal bias and is being widely dismissed by forecasters at this point.

That's it for today. Stay safe and check local media outlets for updates for your area.

Chris

Thursday, June 5, 2025

More Severe Weather Possible for Central to Northern AL and TN

June 5, 2025

🌩️ Active Weather Pattern Returning — Severe Storm Chances Through Next Week

A renewed period of unsettled weather is beginning Friday and is likely to continue through at least mid to late next week, bringing multiple rounds of thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather across Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee.

FRIDAY – June 6, 2025

🟡 Risk Level

Slight Risk (Level 2) across northern Alabama and central Tennessee.
Marginal Risk (Level 1) in central and southern Alabama, and eastern Tennessee.

⏰ Timing

North Alabama / Southern Middle Tennessee:

Florence: 2 PM – 7 PM

Huntsville: 3 PM – 8 PM

Fort Payne: 4 PM – 9 PM

Central Alabama (Birmingham area):

3 PM – 8 PM CDT

Eastern Tennessee (e.g., Knoxville, Chattanooga):

3 PM – 9 PM ET (2 PM – 8 PM CDT)

⚠️ Main Threats

Damaging winds up to 60 mph (primary hazard).
Hail: Possible, up to golf ball size (1.75") – low confidence.
Tornadoes: Very low probability.

SATURDAY – June 7, 2025

🟡 Risk Level

Slight Risk (Level 2) for most of Alabama and central/eastern Tennessee.
Marginal Risk (Level 1) in far southeastern Alabama.

⏰ Timing

Storms are expected to develop in the late afternoon and persist into the overnight hours.
Greatest threat: 3 PM – 9 PM ET (2 PM – 8 PM CDT).

Huntsville Area

Eastern Tennessee

Montgomery-Birmingham Area

⚠️ Main Threats

Damaging winds

Large hail

Flash flooding, especially in areas with training storms

Associated with a slow-moving cold front

🔭 Looking Ahead: Sunday & Monday – June 8–9, 2025

Severe weather appears possible both Sunday and Monday, especially across central and southern Alabama and parts of Tennessee.

Conditions will depend on frontal placement, instability, and upper-level support, but the environment may remain supportive of:

Scattered severe thunderstorms

Damaging wind potential

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding

⏳ Details are still evolving, especially for the second half of the week, but the pattern suggests an extended period of thunderstorm activity.

✅ What You Should Do

Stay alert for watches and warnings.
Check for updates daily, as forecast timing and threats may shift.
Review your severe weather safety plan, especially if traveling or outdoors.

I didn’t want to clutter this post with the 9 severe weather verification maps from the last several weeks, so I’ve shared those separately here if you're interested.

That’s it for today — I’ll keep you updated if the forecast changes or if additional severe weather is added.

— Chris

May 16-30 2025 Severe Weather Verification

June 5, 2025

No discussion this post, just showing severe weather forecast verification maps for applicable days between May 16th and 30th. It's been a busy spring...

May 16