Deep South Weather Outlook February 18-24

February 17, 2020

Synopsis: rain will continue on and off with no significant severe weather in the forecast for the next 7 days as of now. Northern areas could see some snow Thursday. Temps will stay warm until midweek and then start to cool down Wednesday night into the weekend with a few days of warmer weather moving in on Sunday or Monday. Friday and Saturday look like they'll be our nicest days, but cool.

Here's your forecast graphic:

Seriously, the wet weather pattern is going to continue for a while it seems, you can see the frontal progression and rainfall accumulation below. Here's a good article about the pattern we're in: Wet Pattern To Continue Across The Southeast This Week

It'll be seasonably warm until Wednesday night when it starts to cool down. The folks up north will be in the 20s a few nights and wont get out of the 40s during the day through Saturday. Closer to the coast lows will be near or well into the 30s Thursday and Friday nights with highs staying in the mid to upper 50s Friday and Saturday. The beaches should reach the low 60s on Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday wont be quite as cool. Rain will return Sunday and with it a few warmer days to start the week.

After a brief warm up around the beginning of next week we may see an extended cool period through the first few days of March if not longer. The long term outlooks haven't been that great so we'll have to watch to see if this holds.

I hope you all have a great week.

Chris

Severe Weather Outlook - February 12

February 11, 2020

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has backed off a little on its forecast for tomorrow, there is no longer an enhanced (orange) risk area. A good portion of our region is in a slight (yellow) risk category. Associated with that is a 5% tornado risk for some of us and a 2% risk for the rest of us. You can also see the wind risk probabilities. In case your curious a slight risk is "an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity." You can read more here.

Timing is shown in the upper image. Most of us will be asleep so make sure you have a way to receive alerts that will wake you up.

You can get an idea of how the event may look on radar below. I think the severity probability will start to lessen some after midnight into early Thursday morning but we'll have to watch it.

I'll send out an update if the event evolves significantly.

Timing graphic from the Alabama Weather Blog.

Chris

Deep South Weather Outlook February 10-17

February 9, 2020

This is a long one, but really just a lot of images. Read the synopsis for the CliffsNotes version. The beginning is a recap of our recent weather, followed by the weather for week.

Synopsis: more rain coming especially from Montgomery north. There's a chance for severe weather tomorrow for parts of Alabama, but a more significant chance that may affect us all on Wednesday. Temps will be above average for most of the period, especially near the coast, except for a few days towards the end of the week where we'll see some cooler weather. There are some hints at some winter precip for the northern most areas later this week and early next week, but the probability is very low.

Recent Weather Recap

For those that are curious, there were a total of 269 severe weather reports for last Wednesday and Thursday.

Rain was the big story. Many locations received much more than the 3 or so inches of rain (at most) that was previously forecast.

Winter precip was a higher than expected as well, especially in northern Georgia, but this was probably a treat for those of you that got to see it.

For the week to come you can expect the same pattern to continue with the next system moving in tomorrow morning. I think it may clear a little Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but by late Wednesday or early Thursday wet weather returns.  For the weekend and early next week It looks like we'll see another 1-2 punch with the first system coming overnight Saturday or into Sunday and the second Monday or Tuesday. Higher rain amounts look to be from Montgomery north. With some areas exceeding 7 inches for the week, flooding is certainly a risk.

Severe weather is the other concern this week. Tomorrow and overnight Monday a portion of the Deep South is in a Marginal risk area for severe weather, with a 2% chance of tornadoes in this area. While there's a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday, severe weather is not expected. Wednesday is the day to watch, the Day 4 outlook has most of our region in a 15% risk area with a portion in a 30% risk area. We haven't been told any details yet, but all forms of severe weather are possible.

There's not much more to add about temperature than what I stated in the synopsis. I think only the northern-most areas will see temps below freezing a few nights towards the weekend.

I'll send out an update Tuesday regarding the severe weather threat for Wednesday. If you have any questions, or want more specific info for your area just let me know.

Have a great week.

Chris

Evening Severe Weather Update - February 5, 2020

February 5, 2020

In addition to the threat overnight, the SPC has placed a portion of the Florida Panhandle in an enhanced risk for severe weather tomorrow and a good portion of Alabama is also in a slight risk area. The primary threat looks to be high winds but tornadoes are also possible. Timing could vary an hour or two, but storms will approach Walton County around 6am and Bay County around 7am. Bay, Holmes, and Jackson Counties have closed schools for Thursday, Walton is monitoring but schools remain open as of this writing.

The image below is supposed to be a simulated radar animation, I'm not sure if it will work for everyone.

If there is a significant change to the forecast I'll send another update in the morning.

Chris

Mid-Morning Severe Weather Update - February 5, 2020

Just a few minutes ago the SPC updated the Day 1 Outlook to now include an Enhanced (orange) risk area.

The tornado threat level has been increased in this area as shown below. The black hatching indicates a 10% probability of strong tornadoes, EF2-EF5, within 25 miles of a point within the boundary.

We'll likely see a tornado watch issued for this area very soon.

At this time I don't expect to see a change in the risk level for the remainder of the day and overnight, but I'll send out another update if there is a significant change.

Chris

Severe Weather Update - February 5, 2020

February 5, 2020

A quick update on the severe weather threat. A good portion of the deep south remains in a Slight (yellow) risk area. You can see the potential timing below, note the very broad time range. The SPC is describing this as a 3 stage event: 1) storms forming in Mississippi and northwestern Alabama ahead of the front during the day; 2) storms developing nearer to the coast this afternoon and overnight; 3) storms that form along or near the front as it moves west to east, this will impact us late today and overnight. The three stage nature explains the extended time ranges, there will be multiple opportunities for severe weather.

The primary threat remains damaging winds, with tornadoes and hail also possible. The SPC mentioned that the threat level may need to be upgraded as the day progresses. The probabilities shown below represent the chance for each hazard occurring within 25 miles of a point.

The severe weather threat will carry over into tomorrow also, we'll talk about that more later.

If you don't know how to get severe weather alerts, read this for some ideas.

The source for the timing graphic at the top is the Alabama Weather Blog.

Have a plan, stay safe, and have a good day.

Chris

Weather Nerd Corner 6 - CPC Outlooks

Originally sent via email November 4, 2019, with some edits for grammar.

If you're curious, below are the NWS winter (December-February) outlooks.

The NWS also publishes several other temperature and precipitation outlooks from short to long term which you can see here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/. All of these maps are compared to climatological norms. So above average temperature in the winter doesn't mean it's hot, just not as cold as normal. Likewise, below average precipitation doesn't mean no rain (it could), just not as much as normal. Normal is currently based on averages from 1981-2010 (updated once per decade). We'll get an update to this at the end of next year which will be interesting to see.

One thing about the winter forecast maps, or any long term forecast for the most part, is they don't have any skill. That's not saying they're no good, but that they're really just an educated guess. Forecast skill is a measure of how well a forecast does compared to some reference, typically climatology (the past). Long term forecasts typically don't do any better than what climatology says. So if you were to compare a long term forecast to what normally happens for that time of year the forecast will be no better than if you guessed using history as a guide. I could make a forecast for next July right now and say it was going to be like most Julys are and chances are I'd be pretty close, compared to a forecast that says it will be above/below average temp or precip. Because of this some forecasters don't think they shouldn't be published, but people are curious and as long as you understand how they're made there's no harm.