Severe Weather Update for Sunday April 19th

April 17, 2020

We'll have some messy weather over the next few days. In addition, the SPC has placed a large portion of the deep south in an enhanced risk area for Sunday. Storms may be ongoing around day break in northern AL and MS but it sounds like the greatest chance for severe weather will be after noon. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will all be possible. We'll have a better idea tomorrow what the specific threat probabilities will be.

I hope you all have a great weekend.

Chris

More Severe Weather Possible This Weekend

April 16, 2020

There's been some discussion over the last several days that the south may see more severe weather this weekend. Models have finally come into enough agreement that the SPC has placed a large portion of the south in a 30% and 15% risk area for Sunday (Day 4). There's not a lot of info regarding timing yet. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will all be possible. Right now it sounds like they're leaning more towards a wind threat primarily for the south but we'll have to see. The discussion from the SPC said that we should expect to see the threat area move around as it is refined in the coming days.

If you're curious, below is a map that shows how the severe weather event last Sunday verified with the forecast. This link has an animated map that shows how it played out from a watch and warning standpoint.

I hope you're all having a good week. I'll keep you informed as more info comes out.

Chris

Afternoon Severe Weather Update

April 12, 2020

Not a whole lot has changed with the forecast as of the 3p.m. update from the SPC. Severe weather is ongoing across a large portion of Mississippi. It is expected that this will move into central and northern Alabama and middle Tennessee over the next few hours. The northern half of Alabama and southern middle Tennessee just picked up a tornado watch.

The high resolution model seems like it's doing a little better now so I've shared a simulated radar animation again. This kind of thing shouldn't be used as a precise forecast, the storm locations can be off by a county or more and the timing off by more than an hour or two. This kind of product is mainly used to get a general idea of the timing and coverage we may be able to expect.

Stay safe an enjoy the rest of the day.

Chris

Severe Weather Outlook for Today

April 12, 2020

The 8:00a.m. Day 1 Outlook has just been issued. The moderate and enhanced risk areas have expanded both to the east/northeast and to the south. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail all remain possible with a large area encompassed by the black hatched area on the tornado risk map, indicating the possibility of EF-2 or stronger tornadoes.

The SPC described the forecast as "complex." Due to the "complexity" or uncertainty it's hard to say when exactly severe weather may occur. Keep an eye out for changing conditions and listen for watches and warnings. There are some showers ongoing across Alabama this morning but so far the severe weather is in east Texas and western Louisiana. Two rounds of severe weather are possible. The first could occur in the late morning or early afternoon moving to the east-northeast  across Mississippi and Alabama, perhaps moving into Tennessee later in the day. The second round will occur later in the afternoon, moving into Alabama, Tennessee, and the Florida Panhandle from the west or southwest. The possibility for severe weather in this second round is more likely and may last into the evening and overnight as it moves east.

I'm not going to show you a radar animation this morning because I'm not sure if the high resolution model is handling well the storms currently occurring across Alabama west through central Louisiana. If it's not handling current conditions well there is a good chance that what it predicts for later is not correct.

I hope everyone has a great Easter today and that you stay safe in the weather. I'll send out more updates as the situation evolves. We'll get another update from the SPC at 11:30a.m.

Chris

Severe Weather Update for Tomorrow

April 11, 2020

I've been waiting for the 12:30p.m. Day 2 update from the SPC before sending an email. The main severe weather threat areas remain mostly the same as they were on Day 3 (yesterday). A good portion of Alabama is in moderate risk area with the remainder of the state including most of Tennessee and a portion of the the Florida Panhandle in an enhanced area with a huge area beyond that in slight and marginal risk areas.

Tornadoes, severe wind, and hail are all possible. Again, the black hatched areas indicate significant severe weather (EF2 or stronger tornadoes, winds greater than 75 mph, and hail larger than 2") are possible.

From the Mississippi/Alabama line to the east scattered showers will likely be ongoing around daybreak. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how early severe weather could start and what its overall extent and duration may be. It is possible that there could be some severe weather in Alabama early. However, the main severe threat seems focused in the afternoon through evening hours and overnight through daybreak Monday as the system moves from west to east. From the simulated radar animation you can see it'll be a messy day in a lot of places. Again some of the earlier weather could be severe, especially any individual storms that form in clearer air, but the current thinking is that it will be along the more organized line that moves through in the evening and overnight that will represent the main threat.

Hopefully you have a severe weather plan by now and you have multiple ways of receiving alerts, especially since this may be an after dark event for a lot of us. Local TV stations are usually good sources. They often have very well established social media platforms and many of them have apps you can download. Keeping a radio tuned to a local station is a good option as well. If you need any help with receiving alerts let me know.

I'll send out another email tomorrow morning. In the meantime get outside and enjoy this great Saturday we're having!

Chris

Update on Severe Weather Easter Sunday

April 10, 2020

A significant severe weather event is taking shape for Easter Sunday. The main threat area has moved off of the coast a little to the north but the entire deep south can expect the possibility of severe weather. 

Take note of the probability map. Those values indicate the probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. As a reminder severe weather is either a tornado, damaging wind greater than 58 mph, or hail 1" or larger. The black hatched area indicates the possibility for significant severe weather which is EF2 or greater tornado damage, damaging wind greater than 75 mph, or 2" hail or larger. At this time the main threats look to be damaging wind and tornadoes with long-tracked tornadoes possible.

Timing doesn't seem to be nailed down yet but it sounds like we can expect the worse weather anytime from afternoon Sunday to overnight into early Monday as the system moves east.

Keep thinking about your severe weather plan and how it may impact your activities on Sunday. We'll have more details tomorrow.

Chris

Severe Weather Expected Along the Coast on Easter

April 9, 2020

The SPC has placed a portion of the Gulf Coast including southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle in a 30% risk area for severe weather Easter Sunday. Here is the wording from the SPC:

   An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears possible on Sunday     

   across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and possibly into     

   Georgia by Sunday night. Tornadoes (potentially strong/long-tracked)     

   and widespread damaging winds are expected to be the primary     

   hazards. 

It is significant for the SPC to issue a 30% risk for Day 4 and to point out the specific threat (tornadoes). If this forecast hold we'll probably be looking at a moderate (red) risk area on Sunday.

We'll know more details on Friday and Saturday so I'll keep you informed. Yesterday was "SafePlaceSelfie" day. We were supposed to take pictures of ourselves in our safe place and post them on social media. While the idea is sort of a fun one, it also has the serious intention of making us all think about where our safe place is for severe weather. If you haven't done so, I'd encourage you to think about where you would take shelter for severe weather in the places you frequent. Most of us will be at home on Sunday due to social distancing, but for those of us who aren't we should also consider where we'd take shelter at places we might visit. You may even consider altering your plans so that you have access to a shelter if need be.

Have a great end of the week.

Chris