Slight to Marginal Chance of Severe Weather for Northeast AL and Central to East TN

February 28, 2021

There is a slight to marginal chance of severe weather today for the northeast corner of Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee. In the slight risk area there is a 5% chance of tornadoes and 15% chance of damaging winds, in the marginal risk area there is a 2% chance of tornadoes and 5% chance of damaging winds. Timing looks to be late afternoon through late evening. There are ongoing flood watches in the area as well.

As always, keep alert for changing weather and listen for watches or warnings. Have a great Sunday.

Chris

Lots of Rain for Northern AL and TN the Next Few Days

February 26, 2021

A mostly stationary weather system will remain in place over northern Alabama and Tennessee through the weekend. A cold front will move through Sunday into Monday followed by another system lifting north from the Gulf on Tuesday with rain potentially lasting through Wednesday. It looks like the weather may clear towards the end of the week. As of now there is no significant severe weather threat.

3 and 5 day rainfall totals are below as well as an animation of how the weather may progress.

Stay dry and have a good weekend!

Chris

Severe Weather and Winter Weather Expected Later Today and Overnight

February 17, 2020

The active weather continues today with winter weather starting later today for folks up north and severe weather possible in the late evening and lasting overnight into Thursday for those near the coast.

The SPC is forecasting a slight to marginal chance of severe weather tonight into tomorrow for areas near the coast. Locations in the yellow area have 5% tornado, 15% damaging wind, and 5% hail probabilities. Locations in the dark green area have 2% tornado, 5% damaging wind, and 5% hail (for some locations) probabilities. Storms will start moving off the Gulf to our west in the afternoon followed by a frontal line of storms with this continuing as the system moves east overnight. For people in the Florida Panhandle the severe threat might not start until late evening, continuing overnight into Thursday morning as the system clears the area to the east. Rain may remain in the area for a while tomorrow but I think the severe threat will diminish by noon.

Another round of winter weather will impact northern Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee starting later today and lasting overnight. I don't think this storm will bring impacts as far south as we saw a few days ago. Precip will be mixed again so pay attention to local media for conditions in your area. Graphics for different areas are below. Keep in mind that this can change.

Middle Alabama

Northern Alabama

Central Tennessee

Eastern Tennessee

After this system clears the area later tomorrow we will have some settled weather until Sunday or Monday. Thankfully the next system doesn't look to be as active as the weather has been this week. I think we can expect some gradual warming as well.

Stay safe and have a good rest of the week.

Chris

Severe Threat Increased to Enhanced for FL Panhandle

February 15, 2021

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the severe weather threat to enhanced for portions of the Florida Panhandle. Included in this area is a 10% tornado probably and 30% damaging wind probability. The black hatching indicates a 10% probability of significant severe weather which is EF2 tornadoes or stronger and thunderstorm winds exceeding 74 mph. With this forecast the SPC is expecting "a strong tornado or two along with scattered damaging winds likely." The hail probability remains at 5%.

Stay safe and stay alert for rapidly changing weather. Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts and listing for watches and warnings.

Chris

Very Active Weather the Next Few Days

February 14, 2021

It's been a while since my last weather update. The weather's been fairly benign so I didn't see the need to send an email to say nothing interesting was happening. Well, that is all changing... Winter weather in some form is possible northwest of line bisecting Alabama from the southwest to northeast and from there into Tennessee. The farther north and west you are, the more winter precip you can expect. Winter weather in the south is a tricky forecast and everything from freezing rain to sleet to snow is possible overnight tonight into Monday night as the weather moves east. Freezing rain is probably the biggest hazard.

A large portion of the country has some kind of interesting weather right now...

Middle Alabama...

Northern Alabama...

East Tennessee...

Severe weather will be possible in the eastern Panhandle Monday. All modes of severe weather, tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail, are possible with the main threat time being from the afternoon through early evening.

There's too much going on to get into details in each area so pay attention to local media for the latest details.

Stay safe and take pictures!

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Overnight Into Friday

December 31, 2020

I don't have a lot of time to write a lot of details this morning as we're heading back from a short trip. Severe weather is possible starting this evening and lasting into Friday. The worst of it looks to stay to our west as you can see in the Day 1 & 2 Outlook maps. Still, there will be some threat from the Panhandle and west Alabama that lessens and moves eastward overnight. A warm front will lift north across the region later today bringing the first and main threat of severe weather. This will be followed by a cold front that will sweep in from the west tomorrow morning that will provide a lesser threat for severe weather. All three modes of severe weather (tornadoes, wind, and hail) are possible today and overnight with tornadoes and wind being the main threats tomorrow, again to a lesser extent.

Day 1

Day 2

Here's how the event may look on simulated radar, keep in mind this will not be exact as far as timing and location goes.

These threat maps usually change a little bit as we get closer to the event so check your local weather sources for updated info if you have any plans tonight. As always make sure you have a way of receiving weather alerts and keep and eye out for changing weather.

Happy New Year!

Chris

Update to Severe Weather Risk and Timing for Tonight

December 23, 2020

The timing and risk level for severe weather overnight have changed a bit so I wanted to provide an update. On the Day 1 Outlook the SPC has added a slight (yellow) risk area that covers the Alabama coast and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. This area corresponds to a 5% tornado risk and a 15% damaging wind risk. Extending into the rest of the Panhandle and the southern third of Alabama is a Marginal risk area that corresponds to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk. This outlook is valid until 6 a.m. tomorrow. 

The Day 2 outlook beginning at 6 a.m. tomorrow shows a marginal risk area for most of the Panhandle and the southeast corner of Alabama corresponding to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk.

Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon with coverage increasing overnight through tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches from the west. Some of the isolated storms coming off the Gulf after midnight may be severe but the main event will be along the front as it pushes through from the pre-dawn hours to late morning from west to east. Yesterday I thought the front would clear the area by noon but it looks like showers won't leave the eastern Panhandle until the afternoon or early evening hours. The model animation below will give you a rough idea what the weather will look like, just keep in mind timing could be off by several hours and storm location could be off by 1-2 counties.

The wind will be breezy today ahead of the front with strong cold winds behind tomorrow. I don't think this will be a major or widespread event but it's always good to make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings and to keep an eye out for rapidly changing weather. Temps Christmas night will be the coldest of the season so far so make sure to protect your plants and exposed pipes if you haven't done so yet.

Have a great rest of the week and again have a Merry Christmas!

Chris