Update to Severe Weather Risk and Timing for Tonight

December 23, 2020

The timing and risk level for severe weather overnight have changed a bit so I wanted to provide an update. On the Day 1 Outlook the SPC has added a slight (yellow) risk area that covers the Alabama coast and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. This area corresponds to a 5% tornado risk and a 15% damaging wind risk. Extending into the rest of the Panhandle and the southern third of Alabama is a Marginal risk area that corresponds to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk. This outlook is valid until 6 a.m. tomorrow. 

The Day 2 outlook beginning at 6 a.m. tomorrow shows a marginal risk area for most of the Panhandle and the southeast corner of Alabama corresponding to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk.

Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon with coverage increasing overnight through tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches from the west. Some of the isolated storms coming off the Gulf after midnight may be severe but the main event will be along the front as it pushes through from the pre-dawn hours to late morning from west to east. Yesterday I thought the front would clear the area by noon but it looks like showers won't leave the eastern Panhandle until the afternoon or early evening hours. The model animation below will give you a rough idea what the weather will look like, just keep in mind timing could be off by several hours and storm location could be off by 1-2 counties.

The wind will be breezy today ahead of the front with strong cold winds behind tomorrow. I don't think this will be a major or widespread event but it's always good to make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings and to keep an eye out for rapidly changing weather. Temps Christmas night will be the coldest of the season so far so make sure to protect your plants and exposed pipes if you haven't done so yet.

Have a great rest of the week and again have a Merry Christmas!

Chris