A Few Strong Storms Possible Today from Pensacola Through Panama City

January 18, 2025

A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect today for the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. The risk area extends from Pensacola eastward beyond Panama City and includes portions of southern Alabama and Georgia.

Timing and Threats

The severe weather threat will be highest during the afternoon and evening hours, with the primary hazards being:

• Locally damaging wind gusts (5% chance)
• Potential for isolated tornadoes (2% chance)

While widespread severe weather is not expected, residents should remain weather-aware through tonight as isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible.

Winter weather is still looking likely, more details tomorrow.

Chris

Winter Weather Looking More Likely for Coastal Areas Early Next Week

January 17, 2025

An unusual winter weather pattern is expected to affect the region next week. While temperatures are anticipated to be very cold, though maybe not record-breaking, the main focus is on the potential for winter weather along the coast. The possibility has existed for a while, but we're close enough now to say that frozen precipitation is looking likely with maybe even some accumulation.

Key Uncertainties

Several important questions remain unanswered:

1. Type of precipitation (see below)
2. Amount of accumulation (none to maybe 2-4 inches)
3. Timing of the event (starting late Monday or early Tuesday?, lasting until Wednesday?)

These details are expected to become clearer by Sunday or Monday.

Current Outlook

The forecast currently suggests a range of possibilities, from no precipitation (unlikely) to several inches of snow (also unlikely), with various scenarios in between.

Model Comparisons

Two models for Tuesday at 6 p.m. show similar but slightly different scenarios (GFS top, Euro bottom):

1. GFS Model: Predicts freezing rain/sleet slightly north of the Euro model's prediction, indicating a different storm track. No changeover to rain is forecasted.
2. Euro Model: Shows a changeover to rain after initial snow/sleet/ice, which is not present in the GFS model.

These differences reflect subtle variations in the storm track, cold air positioning, and moisture availability.

Snow Probabilities

For those hoping for snow, the Euro model (bottom) is slightly more optimistic:

• Probability of at least 1 inch of snow is shown
• Chances decrease rapidly for accumulations beyond 1 inch
• Significant accumulations are not expected at this time
• A 2-4 inch range (10-20% chance) is possible if the snow band stays to the south

It's important to note that in southern regions, the exact outcome of winter storms can be difficult to predict until the weather event actually occurs. This aims to provide an overview of possibilities rather than a definitive prediction.

That's it for today. Let's watch how the forecast evolves. Have a good weekend and I'll send another update on Sunday.

Chris

Winter Storm Conditions Expected for Central to Northern Alabama and Tennessee as the Cold Pattern Continues

January 9, 2025

A significant winter storm will impact much of the Southeast through Saturday morning. Here's what to expect:

Timing and Accumulations

Snow will begin early Friday morning, with the most likely start times between 4-7 AM for Tennessee and northern Alabama. Expected accumulations of 2-4 inches of snow are forecast, with ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch possible. Areas south of Huntsville or the AL/TN state line may see a changeover to rain later on Friday. 

Regional Impacts

Northern Alabama/Tennessee

• Winter Storm Warning in effect through 6 AM Saturday
• Dangerous driving conditions with widespread closures
• Areas like Huntsville, Florence, and Cullman will see the greatest impacts
• Potential for scattered power outages and downed tree branches

Central Alabama

• Hazardous driving conditions around Birmingham and Anniston
• Mixed precipitation likely
• Infrastructure disruptions possible

Southern Alabama

• Limited winter weather impacts
• Winter driving conditions possible

Keep in mind that southern winter storms are notoriously difficult to forecast and that rain/freezing precip line may move north or south and accumulations may vary a bit. 

Extended Outlook

The Gulf Coast may experience a few showers on Sunday and Monday due to a coastal system. Following this, the next significant weather system is anticipated for the weekend of January 18-19 as the current weather pattern maintains its grip on the region. I think we'll see more frozen precip as well, but it'll be awhile before we have details on location, timing, and accumulation.

Stay safe (and warm!) and have a good rest of the week and weekend.

Chris

A Few Severe Storms Possible Tonight into the Morning, Followed by Cold and Maybe Winter WX

January 5, 2025

Happy New Year! I hope you all had a great holiday season. We are in for an extended period of winter weather (more later), but first a few strong storms are possible Sunday Night into Monday Morning.

Timing and Location

• Birmingham/Central Alabama: 7 PM Sunday - 1 AM Monday
• Florida Panhandle/Big Bend: Monday morning and afternoon
• Mobile/Pensacola Area: 9 PM Sunday - 4 AM Monday

Primary Hazards

• Isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
• Brief tornadoes possible, especially near Alabama/Mississippi border
• Greatest severe threat over southeast Mississippi

Cold Weather Following Storms

• Temperatures will drop sharply behind the front on Monday
• Highs ranging from 30s north to 50s south on Monday
• Lows dropping into the 20s Tuesday through Friday morning, with teens possible in colder locations

Late Week Winter System

• New system developing Thursday in northern Gulf
• Winter precipitation possible Thursday night through Friday night
• Highest chances for snow/sleet/freezing rain north of Livingston-Montgomery-Auburn line
• Greatest snow potential well north of I-20
• System timing and exact track still uncertain

Extended Cold Pattern

• Cold temperatures expected to persist through next weekend
• Highs in the 30s north to 40s south
• Lows mainly in the 20s, with teens possible in typical cold spots

December 27-29 Severe Weather Debrief

• Many strong storms all three days, very good forecast from the SPC

That's it for today. There may be a few more severe storms near the coast later this week, but no significant impacts expected. I'll let you know about the potential for winter weather in a few days.

Chris