A Few Strong Storms Are Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

March 23, 2025

🌩️ Weather Summary: Future & Past Events

🔮 Future Outlook (Tonight - Monday)

• Tonight: Cold front moves into the Southeast, stalling along the coast by morning.

• Threats: Marginal Risk Isolated strong storms with 5% chance of damaging winds, 5% chance of hail, and a 2% tornado risk.

• Timing: Late tonight through early morning.

Birmingham Area

Huntsville

• Monday: Risk shifts to coastal areas (Mobile to central Florida Panhandle) with same Marginal Risk.

• Timing: Throughout the day.

Mobile-Pensacola

Destin-Panama City

📊 Past Event Verification (March 14–16)

• Severe weather reports aligned with forecasts, confirming the event was not overhyped.

• Below are Day 1 Convective Outlook verification maps for each day, showing severe weather reports overlaid on top of the mornings' forecast.

March 14

March 15

March 16

• Tornado warnings were frequent on March 14–15 (Source: @GrantGilmoreWX on X).

⚠️ Stay Safe This Week

• Next storm chance: Next weekend.

• Monitor updates and have a safety plan!

Stay weather-aware and enjoy your Sunday! 🌞

Chris

A Dangerous and Possibly Historic Severe Weather Situation is Unfolding for Saturday

March 14, 2025

This is as bad as it gets...

Critical Saturday Severe Weather Outlook

A HIGH RISK (Level 5/5) - the most severe category - targets central/west-southwest Alabama (including Birmingham). The threats are:

• 30% chance of tornadoes, with multiple strong/long-track EF2+ tornadoes expected

• Baseball-sized hail (>2" diameter)

• Destructive winds over 70 mph

MODERATE RISK (Level 4/5): Rest of Alabama and Florida Panhandle (to Panama City)

• 15% tornado chance (strong EF2+/long-track possible)

• Same catastrophic hail/wind potential as High Risk area

ENHANCED RISK (Level 3/5): Middle/eastern Tennessee and FL Panhandle to Tallahassee

• 10% tornado chance (EF2+ possible)

• Large hail and 60+ mph winds

Timing: Multiple storm rounds possible from Saturday noon through Sunday 3 AM, peaking between 2-10 PM in central AL.

Montgomery-Birmingham Area Saturday

Huntsville Saturday (graphic is outdated, risks are the same for this area)

Eastern Tennessee (graphic is outdated, risks are the same for this area)

Mobile-Pensacola Saturday

Destin-Panama City Saturday (graphic is outdated, risks are the same for this area)

Immediate Overnight Threat (Tonight-Saturday AM)

ENHANCED RISK area covers northern/western AL, southern MS, and middle TN:

• 10% EF2+ tornado chance

• 60 mph winds

• Golf ball-sized hail

SLIGHT RISK extends to Birmingham/Chattanooga/Mobile areas:

• 5% tornado chance

• 55+ mph winds

Montgomery-Birmingham Area Tonight

Mobile-Pensacola Tonight

Essential Actions

1. Consider seek more substantial shelter ahead of time

2. Enable emergency alerts on multiple devices

3. Keep helmets and shoes in your safe room, mattresses are a good idea also

4. Prepare for nighttime tornadoes - charge devices and keep flashlights handy

This remains an exceptionally dangerous setup resembling historic Alabama outbreaks. Stay weather-aware through Sunday morning.

Again, please be safe.

Chris