Synopsis: for tomorrow there is a marginal chance of severe weather in the Florida Panhandle and a large portion of Alabama with wind and hail the main threats. Timing looks to be in the afternoon. There are also two things to talk about in the tropics. First, the yellow area located over Florida is unlikely to develop but will be watched. Second, there is an increasing chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean next week with a possible threat to the Gulf.
Convective Outlook for Tomorrow
Tropical Update
The National Hurricane Center is watching an area located over the Florida Peninsula for tropical development. They list the chance for development at 20% over the next 5 days. The weather over Florida and the Gulf has been fairly active as you've probably noticed. It's possible that a low pressure system located over Florida could move out over the Atlantic and try to develop but this doesn't look very likely. For one it won't have a lot of time over open water if it has any. Wind shear also isn't the most favorable for development. The NHC will continue to watch it in case conditions become favorable for it to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Either way a messy system will bring rain and wind from the Central Florida coast up through the Carolinas over the next few days.
The bigger story is this red area in the Eastern Pacific that has a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days. The reason this is important for us is because several models bring this system over into the Western Carribean or southern Gulf next week. There's too much uncertainty that far out to make a forecast but this signal has been in the models long enough now that it's starting to get a lot of attention. It should be mentioned that conditions in the Caribbean are ripe for early season tropical development. It's far from certain but there's a fair chance we'll see some sort of activity over the next few weeks.
Hopefully you've got your hurricane season plans made and have a kit made up. If not now is the time. Every seasonal forecast I've seen, including NOAA's which came out last week, are forecasting an above average season.
I'll leave the details regarding the differences between subtropical and tropical storms to a future weather nerd corner episode but I want to make a correction about something I said regarding Arthur. I mentioned in my last post that the water temperature was not warm enough for tropical development and that this was the reason I thought subtropical development was more likely than tropical development. This is not true, although cool sea surface temperatures can play a role. What determines tropical vs. subtropical development has more to do with other things that determine the storm's development and structure than just water temperature alone. Arthur, or what would become Arthur, was being influenced by a warm front off to the east initially. Future Arthur and this front drifted apart over time allowing Arthur to develop as a tropical storm in it's own environment, fueled by warm water from the Gulf Stream.
I hope you all have a good week. Stay safe and make your hurricane plans.
Chris
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