There is marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather for most of Alabama and all of Tennessee tomorrow. There have been some other marginal severe weather days lately that I haven't mentioned but I'm mentioning this because the risk area covers a fairly large area and includes all three modes of severe weather. There is a 2% tornado risk that is confined to extreme northern Alabama and most of Tennessee with a 5% wind and hail risk covering the rest of the area. It sounds like the potential for severe storms will be to the west Sunday morning moving east throughout the day and leaving the area by evening. There is a possibility that the risk could be upgraded to slight (yellow) as the event gets closer.
The tropics look to remain mostly quiet over the next week or so if not longer. This time of year there is always a chance for a quick spin up system like we saw with Fay but none of the model guidance is showing any major activity. There were a few hints that something might try to develop in the gulf in 7-8 days from a tropical wave but that idea has been dropped for now. The season has been interesting in that we have set several records regarding the earliest named storm starting with a given letter, most recently with Fay, and also with how far north some of the storms have been. Even though we've had six named storms none of them have been very strong so the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), another way of comparing one hurricane season to another, has been low. That being said from all indications it is just a matter of time before we start seeing a few really serious storms develop.
Have a great weekend.
Chris
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