Yesterday the National Hurricane Center designated an area in the northern Gulf as a place to watch for tropical development over the next 2 to 5 days. As of this afternoon the 2-Day outlook gives this area a 20% chance of development and the 5-Day outlook gives it a 40% chance. Over the next day or so this area will move ashore somewhere along the northern or northeast Gulf so it doesn't have a long time to develop. With that in mind there isn't a lot to limit its development other than time and some wind shear to its southeast. Models aren't showing any Gulf development but they haven't done a good job with this system so far. Instead it looks like development somewhere off of the southeast coast is more likely as it moves up that way in a few days. This is basically what the 5-Day outlook is showing, but it's something to watch for in the Gulf just in case. I don't think this is anything to get excited about but I want you to know that it is there.
Have a great week.
Chris
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