Update on the Tropics - July 23, 2020

July 23, 2020

Over the past few days the tropics have evolved more or less like we thought they would with the one exception being the intensity of both systems. On Tuesday I mentioned the possibility that both could become stronger than what was forecast and this looks to be the case.

It looks very likely that TD 8 will become tropical storm Hanna by Friday morning and slowly strengthen prior to landfall on the mid-Texas coast on Saturday. If TD 8 becomes Hanna this will be the earliest 'H' storm on record, behind Gonzalo which was the earliest 'G' storm.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will most likely become the first hurricane of the 2020 season tonight or tomorrow. It is still expected to weaken after it passes the Lesser Antilles, however there have been a few model runs suggesting that the storm could hang on enough to cause trouble next week farther to the west-northwest. This isn't expected at this time but it's something to watch.

We've got plenty of time but the yellow x on the African coast will be the next area to watch as it moves west. The European operational and ensemble models have been very bullish on developing this wave into a tropical cyclone somewhere near the Lesser Antilles around the end of next week. Curiously, the American GFS and it's ensembles do not develop this at all so there isn't a consensus on what might happen. There are some interesting conversations going on as meteorologists try to figure out which model, if any, is handling the environment correctly. The lack of model consensus has been a frustrating issue lately and it looks like that may continue. We'll have to keep watching the model trends as this wave moves west over open water this weekend and early next week to get a better idea what might happen.

There continue to be serious concerns that the approaching peak of the hurricane season could be very, very active. It's a good time to think about your plan and finish any preparations you've been putting off.

I'll probably send out another update around the start of next week. Have a great weekend.

Chris