I wanted to provide a quick update on the tropics. The area that was near the Bahamas has made steady progress west and now is located right along the northern coast of Cuba. The NHC now gives this system a 30% chance of development over the next 2 days and 40% over the next 5 days. The consensus still seems to be that we will not see any major development, with a tropical depression or maybe a tropical storm expected at landfall on the Texas coast on Friday. Based on some recent trends with other systems there are a few hints that models may be underestimating development a little, but intensification beyond a tropical storm doesn't seem likely at this time.
The other orange area out in the Atlantic is one of the tropical waves I mentioned last time. This may develop a bit over the next several days but beyond that it will likely encounter hostile conditions that will limit development and cause the system to dissipate as it continues west.
Beyond what is shown above there are some early signals that a tropical wave that will come off of Africa towards the end of the week may really need to be watched for development. Not all models agree but several are showing that this wave could make a run at development around the end of the month.
I'll send out another update in a day or so if it looks like the Gulf system may develop more than what is expected now.
Have a good week.
Chris
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