There is not a lot of tropical activity to report this morning. The NHC is watching an area well out in the Atlantic designated Invest 95L that has a 60% chance of developing over the next 5 days. Models don't forecast a lot of development from this in the short term but it is something to watch.
Activity has picked up in the Eastern Pacific over the past few days in what has been a fairly quiet season over there so far. This is notable because an uptick in activity in the Eastern Pacific can foretell what may be coming in the Atlantic basin over the next few weeks. Several of the weather patterns that support tropical development move west to east. These can be monitored by other means but looking for development to our west can be helpful for forecasters.
Last week Colorado State issued an update to their seasonal hurricane forecast. Their forecast is now for 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. This is almost double the activity of an average season. The 9 named storms and 2 hurricanes we have already had count toward these totals. Other seasonal forecasts indicate about the same level of activity. We're about a month away from the climatological peak of hurricane season and it is generally expected that we'll see activity start to pick up over the next few weeks.
I'll let you know once something pops up we need to start watching. Have a great week.
Chris
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