August 16, 2020
Below is the 5-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center. As it was thought, activity is starting to increase in the tropics. It's still too far out to talk for certain about development or specific storm tracks but I think that will change some time this week. Operational models aren't showing a lot of development just yet, but the ensemble models, or at least some of the members, are. The operational models have done poorly overall this year so it is possible they're just not "seeing" the environment correctly yet. Either way, observed conditions and support from the ensembles is enough for the NHC to start identifying some areas of interest.
Please get your hurricane kit in order and have an evacuation plan if you have not done so already. I'll probably send out another update mid-week. Until then enjoy the rest of your weekend and have a great week.
Chris
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