Taking a look at the tropics this morning, even though the 5-day outlook map looks busy there aren't any imminent threats to the US. The system off the east coast, Invest 90L, could bring stormy conditions to the Outer Banks as it passes but I don't have any real concerns about it. Invest 99L is the other red system in the Southeast Caribbean. This could develop some as it moves west but thankfully for the US it does not look like it will try to come north very much, it is mainly a concern for the northern coast of South America and Central America/Southern Mexico.
The tropical wave train keeps sending waves out into the Atlantic but for now there are no immediate concerns. The one to watch the closest is a wave that will come off of Africa over the next few days, with the NHC giving it a 30% chance of development over 5 days. It looks like if this one does try to develop it may be steered fairly far to the north and away from land but we'll have to wait and see. Looking at conditions in the eastern Atlantic there is some dry air north of these waves from the Saharan Air Layer and maybe a little bit of wind shear along their track and I think this is limiting development at this time. There are some hints of development here and there in the models but nothing to get too excited about at this point, definitely no real strong signals. That being said we're getting into the busiest part of the season so any disturbance needs to be watched closely for development.
That's all I have for today. I'll send out another update around the end of the week unless something significant happens between now and then.
Have a great week.
Chris
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