September 27, 2020
My weather updates will be mixed now as we transition into fall weather and with hurricane season ongoing. Starting with the tropics, there's not much going on. I thought we'd start to see some activity early this week, but it looks like what I was seeing was due to a model bias in the 11-15 day time frame. Around the weekend the combination of a few old cold fronts hanging around in the northwest Caribbean and a tropical wave pushing west may lead to development. There's no strong consensus, but there's enough of a signal in the models that it's something to watch. This'll be the general pattern we need to watch for in the tropics the rest of the year.
Up here in the mid-latitudes, two fronts will move through this week with the first arriving Monday afternoon through Monday night. We should all get rain from this followed by some cool air, 3-day rain totals are below (which includes this mess we have near the coast this morning). Starting Tuesday night lows will be in the 50s and highs in the 70s from Birmingham south, higher near the coast of course. Parts north of Birmingham into Tennessee will dip down into the 40's with highs in the 60s. The second front will push through later in the week. It looks to be mostly rain free but it will help reinforce the cooler air through the weekend. After the first front early in the week we may be mostly rain free for at least 7 days.
That's it for today. I'll let you know how the tropics look again later in the week.
Have a good week.
Chris
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