September 21, 2020
I hope you all had a good weekend and have enjoyed the cooler weather. Tropical Storm Beta will continue to bring rain and wind to the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next few days. As you can see looking at the forecast cone we will need to watch for the possibility of a track that could bring the storm back over the northern Gulf. Even if that were to happen I think wind shear may be a bit too strong to support redevelopment. As it stands this morning there isn't much model support for this idea but it's something to watch.
The rest of the tropics are starting to quiet down a little compared to the last few weeks. We're about at the end of the African Easterly Wave part of the season, so we're probably not going to see many more systems that we have to watch from way out in the Atlantic. Instead we're transitioning to the part of the season where the Caribbean and Gulf become the hot spots for development. There will still be tropical waves but we'll be watching for them to develop as they get into the Carribean and we'll also have to watch for development after fronts pass through.
The NHC is watching an area between south Florida and the Bahamas that could develop later this week. This area of storms associated with a weak front will drift to the south-southwest for a few days and then come back north around Thursday. The NHC has given this system a 20% chance of development as conditions may become favorable as it comes north. Models don't do much with this system but it could be that they're just not seeing it well. It's nothing to be concerned about yet, just know it's there.
In the longer term we may need to watch a wave moving into the southeastern Caribbean mid next week and we'll also have one fairly strong front push through around the same time.
That's all for today. Maybe things will be quiet for a little while once Beta moves on.
Have a great week.
Chris
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