October 5, 2020
As of the 5 p.m. EDT advisory, Tropical Storm Delta is now a 70 mph storm, 4 mph from hurricane strength. The NHC is calling for rapid intensification with the forecast now up to 120 mph 36 hours from now, a mid category 3 storm. It seems the caveats on the intensity forecast I mentioned this morning are being realized. I don't expect the intensity to go up too much more at this point, but the situation is still evolving rapidly. The track forecast is a bit west with this update. The model spread has increased beyond three days, so the NHC mentioned that the uncertainty in the long term has increased as well. I think it will be this time tomorrow or late Wednesday morning before the landfall point starts to narrow down. Delta is forecast to weaken to 100 mph near landfall, but keep in mind that a 100 mph storm that was 120 mph a day before can have a larger storm surge than a storm just reaching 100 mph strength. Regardless of the exact strength, significant wind and storm surge damage is expected.
That's it for now. The next full update will be at 10 p.m. CDT.
Have a good evening.
Chris
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