October 6, 2020
Hurricane Delta is a strong category 2 hurricane this morning with 110 mph winds, 1 mph away from a category 3. Yesterday I was wrong in thinking that the intensity forecast wouldn't increase beyond category 3 strength. I think the situation is changing so quickly that the models were having trouble keeping up. Delta is forecast to be at category 4 strength with 130 mph winds as it approaches its first landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow. I think we may see this increase with the full advisory at 11 a.m. EDT. The language from the 5 a.m. EDT advisory is sobering:
"The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it reaches Yucatan..."
You don't see language like that very often from the NHC. The storm is expected to weaken some over Mexico, but then quickly regain category 4 strength over the Gulf. The HWRF model, which the NHC mentions in their 5 a.m. discussion as being a good performer this year, has the storm intensifying to nearly 140 mph over the open Gulf. I think we'll see the intensity forecast for this portion of the track increase as well. The storm is still expected to weaken prior to landfall, with winds forecast in the 100-125 mph range, but I think the details of this are still a bit uncertain.
The track forecast is largely the same, it did shift slightly west a little earlier this morning. I'd be surprised by a large track shift at this point and I think we'll see the landfall point narrow down this evening and overnight. Even so, if you think you may need to prepare for this storm the clock is ticking.
That's it for this morning. I'll send out another update after the 5 p.m. EDT advisory. We'll have two more model runs by this evening and more hurricane hunter data. Hopefully by then there will be a feel for what the ceiling is on the intensity.
Have a good day.
Chris
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