October 15, 2020
There are three areas that the NHC is watching for tropical development as shown below.
Area #1 right over the Lesser Antilles has been watched for a few days, it is Invest 93L. I haven't mentioned it because it's not expected to be a threat to the US and you can see that the NHC gives it 0% chance of development, it'll mainly be a rainmaker for the islands. Area #2 east of Bermuda may try to develop but I think that's a long shot. Both the GFS and Euro spin it up into what is probably more of a subtropical storm than a tropical cyclone but they stop short of full development. Even if it were to develop I think it would be difficult for it to get too close to the coast this time of year, especially as far north as it is, although the Euro shows it getting close to the North Carolina coast next weekend. It's something to keep an eye on if you're on the East Coast but for now I don't think it's a threat.
Area #3 is what we need to watch. We've known about the potential for development in that location for more than a week and now that we're closer it has been identified by the NHC. The GFS and many of its ensemble members have been excited about this area for a while. The current run develops a storm late next week and takes it northeast across Jamaica and eastern Cuba and then across the Bahamas out into the Atlantic. Most of the GFS ensemble members support this general idea but there are a few members that bring it more north across western Cuba leading to a South Florida landfall next weekend or early the week of the 26th. The Euro has been consistently the opposite, the most it shows is a broad circulation that drifts west a bit in the Caribbean. The Euro ensembles are equally bearish, although many members do eventually pull a very weak system to the northeast similar to the GFS track. From what I can gather the consensus is that the Euro is just failing to see the potential for development again as it has done so many times this year. We know conditions will be favorable for development as indicated by the GFS so it's a bit of a disappointment that we're not seeing this from the Euro.
Right now all we can say is that we're likely to see development in the western Caribbean mid to late next week. I don't think we'll see a track west or too far into the Gulf as a north-northeast track is favored this time of year with the fronts that are sweeping through on a regular basis. We're way too far out to rule out anything but I'd say the main threat areas are from western Cuba through to Tampa over to eastern Cuba and Hispaniola through to the Bahamas. We'll probably have a better idea early next week.
In other news we should see a mostly rainless cold front push through today and overnight that'll bring cooler air. Our next shot at rain will be early to mid next week but right now I don't think we'll see much.
Have a good end of the week and a great weekend, it should be a nice one.
Chris
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