October 21, 2020
There's good news in the tropics this morning, the NHC has dropped the yellow area in the Caribbean off the 5-day outlook. The surface weather map for the tropics does show a low pressure in the northwest Caribbean but development is no longer expected in the near term. The Euro got this one correct I think as it consistently showed nothing happening. The GFS, which showed a storm forming run after run for well over a week, finally dropped the idea of development a few days ago. There are still a few GFS ensembles showing development but they're in the minority. As a side note, and because it's there, Epsilon, located east of Bermuda, is no threat to the US.
Looking farther out to next week and into November tropical development in the Caribbean is still possible. Below is the two week tropical hazards outlook and you can see a moderate area for development highlighted in the southern Caribbean for the second week. Models aren't showing a lot, although both the UK and Canadian models seem to develop something near the Bahamas late this weekend that then moves out to sea, maybe some energy from an old front. I think that area in the Caribbean is being highlighted mostly because this time of year favors development in that area and conditions will be generally favorable off and on.
Looking at the weather in the US, we'll have a front move in overnight on Friday. Rain chances will increase starting late Thursday and will last through Saturday. Sunday and Monday look nice and then we'll see another front come through Tuesday with maybe some rain. Rain totals don't look high from either system. Temps won't change much through the next 7 days but it looks like we may see a third front towards the end of next week that could bring some cooler air.
I'll get more into this in a future update but La Nina conditions are expected to persist through the winter and this typically means we will see mild, if not warm, and dry conditions in the southeast.
Have a good rest of the week. If things stay quiet you probably won't hear from until next week so if that's the case have a great weekend.
Chris
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