Tuesday Night Update on Tropical Storm Zeta

October 27, 2020

Time got away from today me a little bit but I wanted to provide an update on Zeta mainly to focus on the hazards we may experience over the next day to day and a half. Zeta is pretty close to being locked in to making landfall somewhere near the Mississippi Delta tomorrow evening. The forecast is for Zeta to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane but it could make a run at category 2 strength. Zeta will be fast moving and the center of the storm will be well out of the area by Thursday morning with some effects lingering until midday.

Damaging winds is the obvious hazard for those near the landfall point. Keep in mind we'll see gusty winds well away from the center of the storm.

Tornadoes will be possible for some areas near the coast from Wednesday overnight into Thursday. There's a 5% chance of tornadoes for the area to the east of the landfall point through the western Panhandle and into southern Alabama with a 2% area indicated just beyond that. The graphics below are a bit old as of the time I'm writing this so don't rely on them as an exact forecast and keep alert for tornado watches that may be issued for your area.

Storm surge is another hazard. Below is the peak surge forecast for Zeta. Keep an eye out for this to change if the track shifts a little or the intensity changes. This caught quite a few people off guard with Sally, although a track shift of that magnitude is not expected at all.

As mentioned Zeta will be a fast moving storm so flooding isn't expected to be a widespread issue. All the same these storms can dump a lot of rain so be prepared if you're in a flood prone area.

That is all I have for this evening. If the tornado threat changes significantly I'll let you know, otherwise this will likely be my last update for Zeta. This weekend we'll take a look at what the tropics may have in store for us in November.

Have a good rest of the week, a great weekend, and a Happy Halloween (it's also a full moon...). Once Zeta and our next cold front clear the area the weekend should be a nice one.

Chris