October 26, 2020
As of the 8 a.m. advisory Zeta is nearing hurricane strength with 70 mph winds. Zeta should become a hurricane shortly and to continue to strengthen as it approaches the Mexican coast. The current forecast has it losing strength over land and then regaining hurricane strength in the Gulf. It's possible we could see Zeta around category 2 strength at its strongest and then weakening some before landfall. The track guidance has consolidated well but there's still a little uncertainty regarding when the storm will start its northward turn and then later its turn to the northeast. Regarding the spread, it's possible that a stronger storm will have a more eastern track and a weaker storm a more westward track. That's not set in stone, but something to be aware of if you're in the vicinity of the forecast cone.
My forecast on the 21st where I didn't think we'd see a lot of rain from the first front was a bust! I don't know what happened where you all are, but I think I got nearly 2" of rain! Zeta is obviously our most immediate concern but we can expect another front to move through around Thursday with at least some rain, although it's hard for me to distinguish rain from a departing Zeta and this front. I expect we'll see some cooler weather follow the front into the weekend, getting temps down to about where they should be this time of year just in time for Halloween.
Looking long term in the tropics, there are strong signals that we'll see another storm develop about where Zeta did during the first week of November. Let's get Zeta past us first, and by then we'll have a better idea what might happen a week and half from now.
That's it for this morning. Have a good Monday.
Chris
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