October 25, 2020
TD 28 was named Tropical Storm Zeta at the 2 a.m. EDT advisory overnight. The track forecast is no longer showing the hard right turn over the middle of the Gulf but the landfall possibilities are still in the same general range from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Zeta is expected to be near hurricane strength for its first landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. It is forecast to remain a category 1 storm for most of its trek across the Gulf and is expected to weaken prior to landfall sometime on Wednesday, although the NHC notes that this weakening phase can be difficult to predict.
The HWRF, which again has been fairly accurate this year, shows Zeta becoming a strong category 2 storm before hitting the Yucatan so that will be something to watch for. Even though this model has a stronger storm initially it brings Zeta across the Gulf and into the Mississippi Delta as a tropical storm. This is just one run from one model but it'll be interesting to see if it verifies. The HWRF has been flopping around a bit as it tries to get a hold of the situation so I don't have a lot of confidence in this yet. You can see other intensity models below. The NHC's intensity forecast is near the consensus of this guidance. Note that so far no model is indicating rapid intensification or a very strong storm at landfall.
That's all for this morning. The good news is that I don't think we're going to see a major impact as we have seen several other times this year. That being said some folks along the northern Gulf Coast are going to get yet another storm.
Have a good day.
Chris
No comments:
Post a Comment