Severe Weather Possible Overnight Into Friday

December 31, 2020

I don't have a lot of time to write a lot of details this morning as we're heading back from a short trip. Severe weather is possible starting this evening and lasting into Friday. The worst of it looks to stay to our west as you can see in the Day 1 & 2 Outlook maps. Still, there will be some threat from the Panhandle and west Alabama that lessens and moves eastward overnight. A warm front will lift north across the region later today bringing the first and main threat of severe weather. This will be followed by a cold front that will sweep in from the west tomorrow morning that will provide a lesser threat for severe weather. All three modes of severe weather (tornadoes, wind, and hail) are possible today and overnight with tornadoes and wind being the main threats tomorrow, again to a lesser extent.

Day 1

Day 2

Here's how the event may look on simulated radar, keep in mind this will not be exact as far as timing and location goes.

These threat maps usually change a little bit as we get closer to the event so check your local weather sources for updated info if you have any plans tonight. As always make sure you have a way of receiving weather alerts and keep and eye out for changing weather.

Happy New Year!

Chris

Update to Severe Weather Risk and Timing for Tonight

December 23, 2020

The timing and risk level for severe weather overnight have changed a bit so I wanted to provide an update. On the Day 1 Outlook the SPC has added a slight (yellow) risk area that covers the Alabama coast and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. This area corresponds to a 5% tornado risk and a 15% damaging wind risk. Extending into the rest of the Panhandle and the southern third of Alabama is a Marginal risk area that corresponds to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk. This outlook is valid until 6 a.m. tomorrow. 

The Day 2 outlook beginning at 6 a.m. tomorrow shows a marginal risk area for most of the Panhandle and the southeast corner of Alabama corresponding to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk.

Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon with coverage increasing overnight through tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches from the west. Some of the isolated storms coming off the Gulf after midnight may be severe but the main event will be along the front as it pushes through from the pre-dawn hours to late morning from west to east. Yesterday I thought the front would clear the area by noon but it looks like showers won't leave the eastern Panhandle until the afternoon or early evening hours. The model animation below will give you a rough idea what the weather will look like, just keep in mind timing could be off by several hours and storm location could be off by 1-2 counties.

The wind will be breezy today ahead of the front with strong cold winds behind tomorrow. I don't think this will be a major or widespread event but it's always good to make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings and to keep an eye out for rapidly changing weather. Temps Christmas night will be the coldest of the season so far so make sure to protect your plants and exposed pipes if you haven't done so yet.

Have a great rest of the week and again have a Merry Christmas!

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Wed Night & Early Thurs, Cold and Sunny on Christmas

December 22, 2020

It's been a while since my last email. The weather's been pretty typical for this time of year with only a really low chance for severe weather a time or two that didn't come to much. On Wednesday evening a strong storm system will move east. This storm will bring a white Christmas for some people as far south as eastern Tennessee. Northern Alabama could see a little but right now that doesn't look very likely.

Before the cold air moves in there will be severe weather risk sometime between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Timing is a bit uncertain but it looks like the weather will move through between midnight and a few hours after dawn. Right now there is a marginal risk for severe weather for most of  Alabama and the Florida Panhandle overnight Wednesday with this area narrowing to just the Panhandle and southeast Alabama by Thursday morning. Wind shear, one of the ingredients needed for severe weather, will be plentiful but instability, one of the other ingredients, will be limited. Because of this there is only a 2% tornado risk and a 5% damaging wind risk although we may see the tornado risk increase to 5% as we get closer. This high shear low CAPE (instability) scenario is typical for the southeast this time of year. Instability will be the greatest in isolated pockets and this is where the worse weather will be. This is good because it keeps the threat limited to isolated storms here or there but it makes it difficult to predict.

This system will move through quickly so except for snowfall in eastern Tennessee on the backside all of the weather should clear the area probably before noon Thursday. If you're going to be on the road early be careful and keep an eye out for changing weather. Windy cold air will move in quickly behind the front so expect a windy and cool Christmas Eve day and evening. Christmas Day will be cold, it may not even reach 50 all the way to the beach with highs in the upper 40's near the coast and upper to low 30s from Montgomery north. Christmas night will be cold with freezing temps likely all the way to the coast and lows in the upper to low 20's from the FL/AL line northward. Temps will warm up through the weekend and for the start of the last week of the year.

If the severe weather risk increases I will send an update, otherwise have a great week and a Merry Christmas!

Chris