Severe Weather Possible Wed Night & Early Thurs, Cold and Sunny on Christmas

December 22, 2020

It's been a while since my last email. The weather's been pretty typical for this time of year with only a really low chance for severe weather a time or two that didn't come to much. On Wednesday evening a strong storm system will move east. This storm will bring a white Christmas for some people as far south as eastern Tennessee. Northern Alabama could see a little but right now that doesn't look very likely.

Before the cold air moves in there will be severe weather risk sometime between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Timing is a bit uncertain but it looks like the weather will move through between midnight and a few hours after dawn. Right now there is a marginal risk for severe weather for most of  Alabama and the Florida Panhandle overnight Wednesday with this area narrowing to just the Panhandle and southeast Alabama by Thursday morning. Wind shear, one of the ingredients needed for severe weather, will be plentiful but instability, one of the other ingredients, will be limited. Because of this there is only a 2% tornado risk and a 5% damaging wind risk although we may see the tornado risk increase to 5% as we get closer. This high shear low CAPE (instability) scenario is typical for the southeast this time of year. Instability will be the greatest in isolated pockets and this is where the worse weather will be. This is good because it keeps the threat limited to isolated storms here or there but it makes it difficult to predict.

This system will move through quickly so except for snowfall in eastern Tennessee on the backside all of the weather should clear the area probably before noon Thursday. If you're going to be on the road early be careful and keep an eye out for changing weather. Windy cold air will move in quickly behind the front so expect a windy and cool Christmas Eve day and evening. Christmas Day will be cold, it may not even reach 50 all the way to the beach with highs in the upper 40's near the coast and upper to low 30s from Montgomery north. Christmas night will be cold with freezing temps likely all the way to the coast and lows in the upper to low 20's from the FL/AL line northward. Temps will warm up through the weekend and for the start of the last week of the year.

If the severe weather risk increases I will send an update, otherwise have a great week and a Merry Christmas!

Chris