Risk Level Decreased to Marginal

April 29, 2021

I apologize for the second email, but as of the 8 a.m. update the SPC has lowered the risk to marginal, good news.

Have a good day.

Chris 

Slight-to-Marginal Risk of Severe Weather Today in AL and TN

April 29, 2021

The SPC is forecasting a slight-to-marginal risk of severe weather for northern and central AL and central-to-eastern TN. Storms will arrive in NW AL around midday with the primary severe threat starting in the evening and potentially lasting overnight. The main risk will be damaging winds but an isolated tornado and hail risk exists for central-western AL.

(Edit: in my email for this post, the SPC Outlook for the whole US is shown.)

That's it for today. I'll be sending out my first tropical weather email sometime soon.

Chris

Update on Severe Weather for Today

April 24, 2021

The severe weather threat for today has increased with the SPC now indicating an enhanced risk for most of southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. You can see the individual probabilities for tornadoes, wind, and hail below. The hail probability is fairly high for our area, it'll be interesting to see how that verifies.

As of the time of this email, about 8:40 a.m., there are two tornado watches in effect. There are also two storms with active tornado warnings in SW GA and several other storms in the area with active severe thunderstorm warnings.

The storms moving through the FL Panhandle this morning are round one. A second round of storms is possible later this morning and lasting through the evening, some of these may be severe as well. You can see this in the model animation below with storms forming behind the first line after it passes (indicated time is Zulu time, subtract 5 hours for Central Daylight Time). The current model shows most of these storms being just north of the immediate coast but we'll see if that verifies. I will say I don't think the model has done the best job capturing the current situation, which gives doubt to its forecast, so it may be one of those days where we just have to wait and see exactly where the weather forms. I think we may see more storms form up into southern and middle AL than what is shown but that is another wait and see.

That is it for today. Stay safe and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts for watches and warnings.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

Update on the Severe Weather Threat Today and Tomorrow

April 23, 2021

The Storm Prediction Center is still showing the possibility for severe weather today and tomorrow. Not much has changed for today's forecast. For tomorrow I expected to see the threat level increased but I think there's too much uncertainty at this point to do so. I think we will probably see a higher threat level over a small area somewhere near the coast issued tomorrow but perhaps just an enhanced (orange) area and not a moderate (red) area as I thought yesterday. Now that we can see the threats for each mode the highest tornado and hail threat is just north of the immediate coast with the wind threat extending all the way to the Gulf. 

Stormy weather will be ongoing in the morning and will continue into the evening with the severe threat highest from just after daybreak to late afternoon. I have shared a model animation of what the radar could look like but it will likely be quite different. Some of the earlier weather may avoid the immediate coast until mid-morning with scattered storms forming farther south when daytime heating starts. This would keep the highest rainfall totals north of the FL/AL line. Towards the evening a cold front will sweep through and clear the rain out of the area.

Today

Tomorrow

Simulated Radar 10 p.m. Tonight Through Midnight Saturday (likely to change)

That is all I have for now. I'll send out another update in the morning, hopefully with better information on timing of the worst weather.

Have a good Friday.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Friday into Saturday

April 22, 2021

Severe weather will be possible Friday into Saturday. The main threat area on Friday is mostly to our west but southern AL will see a low chance for all modes of severe weather Friday evening and overnight. 

Saturday looks to be a higher risk event. Details will be forthcoming but it looks like the greatest threat will be closer to the coast as storms develop behind a warm front that will lift north throughout the day. More storms will follow as a cold front sweeps through later but the threat isn't expected to be as high with this second round. I expect the risk level to be increased above what is currently shown, perhaps even with a narrow moderate (red) risk area being issued Saturday morning.

Friday

Saturday

Rainfall totals for the next 5 days are shown below for those of you that have situations sensitive to lots of rain, doesn't look too bad.

I'll keep you updated as we learn more about the severe weather threat on Saturday.

Have a great Thursday,

Chris

 

Quick Update on Saturday's Weather

April 9, 2021

I wanted to provide a quick update on tomorrow's weather since it will be ongoing by the time I'm up and moving. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded tomorrow's risk to enhanced for the southern-east-ish half of AL and the western FL Panhandle.The change looks to be mostly due to an increase in the damaging wind threat along the coast. Winds stronger than 75 mph will be possible in the hatched area (lower right image). Storms both ahead of and in the squall line will be potentially severe with isolated tornadoes and hail also possible. The weather looks to clear the area by mid-afternoon, with scattered showers returning early Sunday morning mostly along the coast.

Note that the time in the animation is Zulu time, or 5 hours ahead of us.

I'll send out another email in the morning (once I'm up) if there's something significant to mention.

Chris

Severe Weather Update

April 9, 2021

Severe weather is still on tap through Saturday. For today the enhanced risk area (that I neglected to mention yesterday) is now bulging well into AL encompassing the Montgomery and Birmingham metro areas. Slight and marginal risk areas extend over much of the southeast. For tomorrow a slight risk area is again shown to the south and east of today's risk area. Some severe weather may linger in the eastern FL Panhandle early Sunday but most of it should be off to the east. I'm avoiding any discussion on timing. Since stormy weather will be widespread for the next 24-36 hours it would be difficult to pinpoint the times when it may be the most severe. Frankly, this looks to be a messy and evolving situation so it may not be possible to get specific. You'll see this illustrated below in that the simulated radar looks a lot different than yesterday. Storms shouldn't be severe the entire time so listen for watches or warnings in your area indicating when severe weather may be initiating.

Simulated Radar (again, expect this to change)

Today

Tomorrow

Sunday

That's it for today, have a good safe weekend.

Chris

Update on the Severe Weather Threat Through Saturday

 April 8, 2021

There is not much in the way of severe weather expected for the rest of today except for a portion of NE AL and eastern TN, which is in a marginal risk area. On Friday there is a severe weather risk for a large portion of AL and the western FL Panhandle, with slight and marginal risk areas indicated (edit: I should have noted the enhanced area in western AL). On Saturday the risk area shifts south and east, again covering a large portion of AL and all of the FL Panhandle through the Big Bend in a slight risk area. Timing on Friday looks to be later in the day through the evening and overnight with mostly scattered storms. Early in the morning on Saturday a squall line will move through the southeast, leaving the eastern Panhandle in the afternoon. Scattered showers may remain in its wake. Some areas may still see several inches of rain through early next week.

Model Radar Loop (actual timing and coverage may vary)

Rest of Today

Tomorrow

Saturday

Rainfall

I apologize for the error in timing in yesterday's post. The afternoon timing I mentioned was for the worst weather that occurred to our west and was not correct for arrival of storms in AL.

Chris

Multiple Days of Severe Weather Possible

April 7, 2021

Well our week of good weather is about to come to a close with multiple days of rainy and stormy weather expected through early next week. Starting today in western AL some storms may be severe. Timing of severe weather today will be in the afternoon. Severe weather will also be possible across the southeast through at least Saturday, with Saturday's event perhaps having the highest impact.

Today

Tomorrow

Friday

Saturday

In addition to severe weather, some areas may see a good soaking, especially in the western FL Panhandle and in the AL Panhandle. Below is the 7 day precipitation forecast.

I'll keep you updated as the forecast evolves.

Chris