April 23, 2021
The Storm Prediction Center is still showing the possibility for severe weather today and tomorrow. Not much has changed for today's forecast. For tomorrow I expected to see the threat level increased but I think there's too much uncertainty at this point to do so. I think we will probably see a higher threat level over a small area somewhere near the coast issued tomorrow but perhaps just an enhanced (orange) area and not a moderate (red) area as I thought yesterday. Now that we can see the threats for each mode the highest tornado and hail threat is just north of the immediate coast with the wind threat extending all the way to the Gulf.
Stormy weather will be ongoing in the morning and will continue into the evening with the severe threat highest from just after daybreak to late afternoon. I have shared a model animation of what the radar could look like but it will likely be quite different. Some of the earlier weather may avoid the immediate coast until mid-morning with scattered storms forming farther south when daytime heating starts. This would keep the highest rainfall totals north of the FL/AL line. Towards the evening a cold front will sweep through and clear the rain out of the area.
Today
Tomorrow
Simulated Radar 10 p.m. Tonight Through Midnight Saturday (likely to change)
That is all I have for now. I'll send out another update in the morning, hopefully with better information on timing of the worst weather.
Have a good Friday.
Chris
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