June 1, 2021
I hope everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend. Today is the first official day of hurricane season (yay?). There's not a lot going on in the Atlantic at the moment but I thought it was a good time for a quick update, you can see the 5-day outlook below.
We've already had our first named storm, Ana, that wasn't noteworthy other than it continued the trend of having a storm before the official start of the season. Before I get to what the next few weeks may look like, I want to update you on a few other seasonal forecasts. NOAA's forecast which was issued on May 20 is calling for an above average season with storm numbers as shown in the graphic (https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season). Interestingly, the Met Office in the UK is calling for an average season (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/tropical-cyclones/seasonal/northatlantic2021).
We're probably going to see the chance for activity in the Atlantic pick up over the next two weeks. Activity in the Eastern Pacific Basin is picking up, they're already on their second storm, and I think we'll see that continue in the short term. Often an increase in activity to our west is a sign of things to come in the Caribbean (which is one of the hot spots this time of year) and sure enough several models are hinting at some development around the end of next week. It'll be this weekend or early next week before there is a better feel for what might happen so nothing to be concerned about right now. Climatologically we're in the part of the season where a storm can quickly spin up from the tail end of an old front or other disturbance so sometimes we get surprises, but at the moment nothing is expected for about 10 days.
That's it for today. As a reminder all of these get posted to my blog www.deepsouthwx.com and I have a Twitter account you can follow as well @DeepSouthWXUS. There are links to a variety of resources on the site.
Have a great week.
Chris
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