Tropical Weather Update - June 7, 2021

June 7, 2021

Synopsis: development in the southwest Caribbean may be possible towards the end of the week but nothing to be concerned about at this time.

Yesterday evening an area to watch with a 20% chance of development popped up on the 5-Day Outlook. The text from the NHC states: "An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward toward Central America."

In the last update I mentioned that models were hinting at development towards the end of this week or through the weekend. That specific signal has more or less been dropped, this area highlighted by the NHC is something different. Models are still hinting at development but not until mid next week now. This time of year something called the Central American Gyre, or GAC, can form. The CAG is an area of stormy weather that can sometimes spit out a tropical disturbance. There is not a CAG yet but one is expected to develop. This is what models are hinting at and what the NHC is watching for. I have also included the Eastern Pacific 5-Day Outlook and the Climate Prediction Center's Tropical Hazard Outlook which show this possibility as well.

There's nothing to be concerned about right now. It'll be awhile before we need to pay attention if this area does produce a storm. As with the last update I'm mainly just making you aware that there is some noise about tropical development in case you see or hear something. If it helps, hurricanes are fairly rare in the month of June, statistically speaking.

Have a great week.

Chris