Tropical Weather Update - June 27, 2021

June 27, 2021

Synopsis: There are a couple of systems being watched by the NHC but there is nothing for Gulf Coast residents to be concerned about at this time. The southeast Atlantic coast may see some minor impacts from a tropical depression or tropical storm on Monday. There are a couple of tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic that bear watching, but no strong signals for development currently.

Getting into the details, the 2-day and 5-day outlooks below show the two systems being watched by the NHC. 

The system off the east coast isn't a concern for most of us but for those in that area some wind and rain from a mid-grade tropical storm looks to be the worst case if it manages to develop. Out in the eastern Atlantic a tropical wave has a 30% chance to develop as it heads towards the Lesser Antilles. Models aren't too excited about this system and environmental conditions aren't the best so significant development is not expected. All the same these systems should always be watched just in case. Farther to the east there is another wave just coming off the African continent. You can see the large area of clouds just off the coast on the 2-day outlook. The GFS and Euro models (and their ensembles) show a stronger signal for this second wave but nothing to get excited about at this point. The first wave may try to develop around mid-week as it approaches the islands. If it can survive the eastern Caribbean, which is typically an unfavorable area for systems to develop, we may have a weak system to keep an eye on in the central Caribbean about a week from now. Overall chances of this look low. The second wave may get a shot at development towards the end of this week. If it does, it could be a threat to the islands and points west around the weekend or beginning of next week, perhaps the Bahamas as well if it pulls more to the north. If this occurs we'll want to start watching to get an idea where the long term track may lead, but we're 10+ days out at this point so there's a ton of uncertainty. To put this in perspective, early last week there was a lot of excitement about the first wave, only to watch the models back way off with nothing happening, so it turned into a non-event.

That's it for today, I'll probably send another update out next weekend unless things go quiet. You can find links to all my posts, the NHC graphics, and more at my blog: https://www.deepsouthwx.com/. As always if you have any questions let me know.

Have a great week!

Chris