Activity Increasing in the Tropics

August 7, 2021

Activity in the tropical Atlantic is increasing as you can see in the NHC's 5-Day Outlook below. I also included the two-week Tropical Hazards Outlook for a longer term look. The NHC is currently watching three systems as they move west across the deep tropics with varying chances of development for each. If you stop reading here just know there's nothing to be concerned of yet but that we'll need to start keeping an eye on things and that it's a good idea to have a plan if you haven't done that yet.

At the moment conditions aren't the best for short-term development but they should improve over the next week to week and a half. The current run (12Z) of the GFS develops the middle system and takes it north towards the east coast but other than that there are no overwhelming signals for development. As these systems get farther west into the Caribbean starting mid-week through the weekend we'll need to pay attention how healthy they are and watch for development over an area spanning the central Caribbean through the Bahamas and eastern Gulf of Mexico. You can see this general pattern in the animations below. 

What you're looking at are ensemble model runs so for the Euro ensemble (ECMWF EPS) you're seeing 51 members and for the GFS ensemble (GEFS) you're seeing 31 members. Each member has slightly different conditions to give us an idea what the forecast spread is, including some crazy outliers. Don't pay attention to any particular solution. Ensembles aren't very useful for precise forecasts but they are great to see patterns especially at longer lead times. You'll notice we're not seeing a lot of development in any one area but there is definitely enough of a wide-spread signal to suggest that there is a moderate chance for development. It's too soon to have any good idea where a storm may track but this does tell us we need to keep a closer eye on things.

That's it for today, I'll probably send out another update around mid-week. Get your hurricane kits ready if you haven't and firm up your plans just in case.

In other news I am officially a meteorologist as of yesterday! All that really means is that I have completed the formal learning stage and have begun the stage of learning that will last the rest of my life. I can tell you that what I learned in school only scratches the surface!

In case you have forgotten or didn't know all of my emails and other resources can be found on my blog here: https://www.deepsouthwx.com/. You can also find me on Facebook and Twitter if you want to follow me there.

Have a great weekend!

Chris