August 9, 2021
Well it's not quite mid week but I wanted to provide a quick update on the tropics as you're likely to start seeing forecast cones on the news or internet. The NHC has designated one of the areas of interest in the tropics as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. This one did surprise me a little bit, I wasn't expecting development quite this soon.
It looks kind of scary with the forecast showing the potential for a storm in the Gulf by the weekend (could go somewhere else also...) but right now we're not looking at a major threat. It isn't a tropical cyclone yet but strengthening to tropical storm strength is expected in the short term. Once the storm clears Puerto Rico and Hispaniola some restrengthening (assuming it is weakened by the islands) is possible. Beyond that, long term prospects for a strong storm aren't that good. First, there will be at least some if not a lot of land interaction through the end of the week depending on the exact track. Second, PTC 6 has quite a bit of dry air on its north and west sides which could wrap into the center of the storm and disrupt it. Third, as it enters the Gulf wind shear is expected to increase and if that holds it will also limit intensification. Because of all of this the current model consensus is for limited development and the current forecast is for a tropical storm at the most. A stronger storm isn't impossible, but a really strong storm doesn't look very likely at this time.
That's it for tonight. If we get some significant forecast updates I'll let you know.
Chris
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