August 13, 2021
The 11 p.m. EDT update is out and with this forecast the NHC shifted the track a little more to the west with the center of the track showing landfall near Navarre, FL as a 60 mph tropical storm Monday night. The NHC noted that their forecast is a bit to the east of many models and that farther shifts west may be needed.
Due to wind shear most of the convection is well to the southeast of Fred over the northern Caribbean while the center of Fred, if there even is one, is somewhere over central Cuba. Due to this Fred isn't going to strengthen much until it pulls away from Cuba sometime tomorrow. Even though Fred will have a full day and a half over the Gulf persistent wind shear is expected to limit intensification. I was a little concerned earlier this evening when I saw the track and model trends. Some of the most recent model runs have settled back down and given the current poor state of the storm and continued presence of wind shear I am feeling better. We'll see what tomorrow brings but hopefully this trend continues.
I won't spend much time on it yet but Invest 95L became Tropical Depression Seven earlier today and will likely become Tropical Storm Grace by tomorrow. I didn't think we'd see it get named quite this soon but thankfully not much additional strengthening is expected in the short term. No concerns yet at all but we'll need to start paying more attention once Fred is out of the picture.
That's it for tonight. I'll probably send out another update by early evening tomorrow.
Have a great Saturday.
Chris
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