August 15, 2021
We're still watching the same two storms this morning. Starting with Fred, until just a few minutes ago it actually has not been a tropical cyclone at all for the better part of the last two days. While still shown as the "Remnants of Fred" on the map below, Fred has again become a tropical storm as of 8:40 a.m. EDT. The NHC issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the AL and FL Panhandles earlier this morning and tropical storm warnings are expected with the 11 a.m. EDT advisory. After seeing the track shift west for 24 hours starting Friday evening we're now seeing the track shift east again. We'll see where the NHC puts the center for the next advisory. At 5 a.m. they noted it may be forming a little more to the north which would shift the track to the east again. Regarding intensity the expectation is for Fred to regain tropical storm strength, perhaps with winds as strong as 60 mph. Heavy rainfall will be the main impact but there will be minor storm surge concerns as well.
Looking briefly at Grace, which is struggling to maintain it's tropical cyclone status this morning, we're going to see it evolve in a similar fashion as Fred through Thursday. A lot of the current model guidance takes the storm across the Gulf to our west but we'll have to wait a few days to see if that holds.
That's it for now, I'll send out another update later today or tomorrow morning.
Chris
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