Quick Thursday Update - Tropical Cyclone Expected in the Gulf This Weekend

August 26, 2021

I'm mostly going to talk about the short-term today. The NHC has been watching an area in the Caribbean for several days now. Designated Invest 99L, it has a 90% chance of development over the next 2 days as it moves northwest and we'll probably see it become a depression soon. Until a storm actually forms and models have a fix on where it is located the forecast is a bit uncertain. For now the model consensus takes the storm into Louisiana with quite a bit of spread to the east and west (see below). Everywhere from the central Texas coast to Alabama is on the table, it depends on how far to the north the center forms from its parent tropical wave and how the steering currents evolve over the next few days. Right now those of us in the Florida Panhandle need to watch but I'm not concerned at the moment as it looks like one of the main steering features should keep it to our west if (...if...) the forecast holds. We'll have more confidence in the forecast later tomorrow or Saturday.

This will likely be a fairly strong storm at landfall, the NHC is already urging people to be prepared, here is their statement this morning: 

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday and Monday.  However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

Note that they mention our area. I think they're doing this to cover all bases at this point but we need to keep watching. Note also that landfall will be early next week with the potential for impacts beginning late this weekend. 

Looking a little longer-term, there are still some signals that we may see another storm try to develop in the same area early to mid next week. Nothing for sure at this point but something to watch once we get past this storm, which will be named Ida if something else out in the Atlantic doesn't form first.

That's all for today, I'll have another update this weekend.

Chris