August 22, 2021
Let's take a look at what the tropics may have in store the next few weeks. There are no concerns in the short term as you can see on the NHC 5-Day Outlook. However, looking at the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook we may start to see activity pick up in the western Caribbean around mid-week lasting through at least the beginning of September. Eastern Atlantic development is also possible towards the end of the month.
Getting into the details a little, several tropical waves will move through the Caribbean over the next 10 days and conditions will be at least moderately favorable for development. Operational and ensemble models are showing a storm developing around the end of this week or weekend and making landfall anywhere from northern Mexico through Louisiana Monday or Tuesday the following week (August 30-31). At the same time this landfall is occurring (assuming there is a storm...) there is a signal in the GFS and GEFS for another storm developing in the same area but with a wider track spread that could put more of the central and eastern Gulf at risk over the Labor Day weekend. It should be noted that the ECMWF doesn't develop this second system at all and only a few of the 51 Euro ensemble members show development. During this same end of the month timeframe we'll need to watch the eastern Atlantic for development from a tropical wave coming off the African coast but it'll be a while before we're concerned about that if at all.
That's it for today. We're nearing the peak of the season so this increase in activity is expected. I'll send out another update between the middle or end of the week depending on what happens in the Caribbean.
Have a great week!
Chris
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