August 15, 2021
Not much changed with the forecast for Fred with the 10 p.m. CDT advisory. The center of the track still brings the storm in just west of Walton/Bay county line as a 60 mph storm Monday evening. The main impacts will be at and to the east of the landfall location. There will definitely be some wind and storm surge along the coast but elsewhere rain and possibly tornadoes will be the main hazards. I completely forgot to mention the tornado threat during my last update but most of you know they are typically a hazard with landfalling storms, especially on the east side. Right now the risk is only 2% but we might see that go up tomorrow morning.
The 00Z operational models are starting to come in and one concerning item is that the GFS is showing Fred to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall. It is one run of one model so taking everything as a whole it is an outlier. Major global models like the GFS don't always do well on storm intensity although they do pretty good on the track. That being said, it is a generally reliable model so we'll need to see if this trend continues and watch if other models jump on board. There is virtually no other support for this at this time but it's not impossible so something to keep an eye on.
That's it for tonight.
Chris
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