Thursday Evening Update on Fred and Invest 95L

August 12, 2021

There are a couple of systems to talk about today. Fred only just survived its trip across Hispanolia, it's probably not even a tropical cyclone anymore but the NHC has stuck with calling it a depression as it is still producing squally conditions. The forecast track for Fred has been very consistent but there is still some uncertainty. With Fred being so weak models sort of lose track of the storm and solutions start to diverge. How much Fred restrengthens also affects the track as a very weak system will go more to the west where a stronger system more to the northwest. The NHC is expecting some restrengthening so their track has remained northwesterly. Fred is expected to regain some strength but it will be an uphill battle for at least the next day. Starting Friday night Fred will have a better environment but once we get to the weekend land interaction could again become a factor if the storm rides up the west coast of Florida. Although the intensity forecast is a bit uncertain there are no solutions or expectations for significant strengthening at this time and the current forecast maxes out at 50 mph Sunday afternoon.

Moving on, Invest 95L is a developing tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Caribbean. This system currently has a 60% chance of development over the next 2-days and a 70% chance over 5 days. This system looks to take a very similar path as Fred, at least initially, although a few models show the storm recurving into the Atlantic. Intensity guidance is split with some models showing very slow development (or none at all) with others showing a strong tropical storm within three days. This system will be in the presence of some wind shear and dry air to its north that should limit development a bit through the weekend. Even so, the NHC does expect a tropical depression to form by Sunday. Once development does occur we'll get a better idea what the long term forecast may look like.

That's it for today. I'm not concerned about Fred but given how warm the Gulf is we should keep watching just in case conditions line up and it tries something sneaky. I'll send out another update tomorrow or Saturday depending on how things evolve.

Have a good Friday and a great weekend.

Chris